Should You Bet on the Vegas Golden Knights to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?
After losing to Edmonton in the second round of the playoffs last year, the Vegas Golden Knights have the opportunity to get their revenge this season, potentially meeting the Oilers again in the second round this season. In order to do so, the Golden Knights will need to skate past either Utah or Los Angeles in the first round, two wildcard contenders who excel on defense.
Vegas Golden Knights to Win Western Conference?
No matter who the Golden Knights face in the first round, they are well equipped to make a deep run in the bracket, fielding a front line who ranks in the top-10 in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play. The production they receive from their top two lines has played a major role in their success this season with four players averaging more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
To help compliment their offense, the Golden Knights back line have been dominant this year, ranking second overall in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With their back line consistently smothering their opponents shot attempts, this makes it easier for them to pull away on the scoreboard.
Especially with Akira Schmid giving them the protection they need to drastically reduce the amount of variance in their contests, averaging 2.59 Goals Against per game. While his Save Percentage indicates negative regression is looming large, the coverage he receives from his back line helps brush aside regression, helping him keep a clean sheet on a nightly basis.
If the Golden Knights are able to win the Pacific, then they will kick off their run to the Western Conference Finals with a first round matchup against either the Utah Mammoth or Los Angeles Kings. When comparing the two, the Golden Knights would prefer to face off against the Kings, pitting them against a group who ranks well below league average in Expected Goals For.
Assuming the Golden Knights move on, then they would most likely draw Edmonton in the second round, battling it out against an Oilers back line who underwhelms on defense. By the time the Golden Knights match up with the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals, you can hedge your bet by betting on the Avs series moneyline to help secure a profit.
Best Odds: Vegas Golden Knights to win Western Conference
Vegas Golden Knights to Win Stanley Cup?
Not only are the Golden Knights more than capable of beating the Avs in the Western Conference Finals, but their high level of play at both sides of the ice will help them match up well against any opponent in the East. Including the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes who rival the Avs at the top of the oddsboard to win the Stanley Cup.
One key advantage the Golden Knights have that most teams do not is their depth at goalie. Even though Adin Hill has struggled this season, he has a proven track record of success, making him a viable option if he can round back into form. Carter Hart has also been able to play at a competitive level, averaging just 2.81 Goals Against per game.
With the Golden Knights capable of rotating their goalies throughout the playoffs, they can preserve Schmid’s legs for the later rounds, keeping him fresh when their quality of opponent ramps up. With wear and tear not playing nearly as big of a role by the time they reach the finals, the Golden Knights can avoid regression with Schmid still able to make quick cuts across the crease.
Schmid’s ability to sustain his high level of play in net will be vital, especially if the Golden Knights face off against the Hurricanes who currently lead the league in Expected Goals For in All Situations. By neutralizing their front line, the Golden Knights will be able to set a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with, increasing their chances of winning.
By betting on the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup now, you can give yourself options to play with by the time they reach the finals. If they face off against either the Lightning or Hurricanes, you can hedge your bet to secure a profit. If either top contender fails to make it, then you can let your bet ride in the first game and monitor if you need to buy back on the other side during the series.
Best Odds: Vegas Golden Knights to win Stanley Cup
Any Vegas Golden Knights Players to Win Conn Smythe?
With Vegas chalk full of talent, it’s important you expand your reach as much as possible to help make a profit. Starting off with Jack Eichel who led the team in points, making him the clear favorite to win the award. Not only does Eichel generate Assists at a high rate, he also excels at pressuring the net, averaging 0.34 Expected Goals and 3.49 Shots on Goal per game.
Rivaling Eichel is Tomas Hertl, the team leader in Expected Goals with an average of 0.44 per game. With opposing back lines forced to shade their coverage towards Eichel, the width of Hertl’s shooting lanes in front of the crease will widen, improving the quality of his Shots on Goal which will help him score at a more consistent rate.
With Schmid’s Save Percentage less than ideal, I will elect to add more forwards to the portfolio instead of a goaltender, including a bet on Pavel Dorofeyev and Mark Stone who both also average more than 0.35 Expected Goals per game. Divide your wager up in four parts, placing 0.40u on Eichel and 0.20u on Hertl, Dorofeyev, and Stone.
Photo Credit: AP/Ian Maule
