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Best Bet: SMU +1.5 (-110)
Best Bet: Over 58.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: SMU 31, Louisville 28
The Pick: SMU 31, Louisville 28
With little conviction, we’ll take the underdog to cover based on head-to-head trends along with recent ATS success for SMU.
Game Betting Analysis
We’re going to take a risk here and take the underdog, meaning the data suggests taking a chance on the road team covering the spread or winning outright. Let’s start with the head-to-head, as SMU has won and covered the spread in the last two meetings with Louisville. Also, the Mustangs are on a current 6-1 ATS run. Our setback, however, is the SMU ATS record sitting at an 0-6 record when playing on the road in September. However, the overall ATS mark for SMU paired with its 2-0 head-to-head ATS will have us leaning into the Mustangs’ realm. While the spread is a low +1.5-points, the moneyline is minus-value. Never take an underdog to win outright at minus-value, so we’ll pay the chump change and hold our breathe. Conviction is low, but feel free to also take the Over in what should be a shoutout, although 58.5 is high.
SMU-Louisville Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Jennings vs. Kienholz in a Likely Shootout
Both offenses are humming — SMU ranks 3rd nationally in yards per play (6.7), Louisville 23rd (6.6) — and neither defense has shown it can slow anybody down, which is why one model is already backing the over on a total near 59.5. That sets up a genuine shootout between two very different quarterbacks: SMU’s Kevin Jennings leads the country in yards per attempt (14.8) and is averaging 383.5 yards per game, while Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz has been the picture of efficiency, completing 68% of his throws for zero interceptions and adding three rushing touchdowns as a dual threat.
The tiebreaker is history and recent trend. SMU has won all four all-time meetings, including a 38-6 rout last season in which Jennings torched Louisville for 303 yards and four total touchdowns, and the Mustangs are 8-2 against the spread over their last 10 games overall. With the line sitting right around a pick’em, that track record — plus Jennings’ big-play explosiveness — makes SMU the lean if this turns into the track meet both offenses are capable of.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium – 72 ppg; 1-0 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 3
- SMU +1.5 (-110)
- Over 58.5 (-112)
Key Players
SMU Mustangs
- QB, Kevin Jennings — Last Game: 14/16, 337 yards, 5 TD
- WR, Derrick McFall — Last Game: 6 carries, 46 yards; 2 catches, 57 yards, TD
Louisville Cardinals
- QB, Lincoln Kienholz — Last Game: 16/21, 332 yards, 2 TD; 6 carries, 42 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Isaac Brown — Last Game: 13 carries, 61 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
