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Top TD Picks: Jaylen Warren & KC Concepcion
We’re all set for a matchup of AFC North rivals on Week 4 Thursday Night Football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. The Steelers finally got on track on offense in a 30-27 win over the Bengals last week, while the Browns won their second game in a row, upsetting the Panthers at home. Jaylen Warren was fantastic as the bellcow for the Steelers, making him an intriguing target for Week 4. The same goes for Browns rookie wideout KC Concepcion, who has some untapped potential given his heavy usage.
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To that end, find out why Jaylen Warren and KC Concepcion are my two favorite touchdown prop bets for Week 4 Thursday Night Football. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Jaylen Warren Touchdown Odds
This Steelers vs Browns game is projected to be low-scoring, as reflected in the 38.5-point total. But I can’t help but go with the chalk with Jaylen Warren to score a touchdown, even though it’s currently listed at -105 odds. Warren was phenomenal as the lead back last week, rushing 17 times for 127 yards, while catching 3-of-4 targets for 49 yards.
On a short week with Rico Dowdle’s status once again in doubt, look for the Steelers to lean on Warren for the second week in a row. This is baked into his props, as his rushing yards is currently at 68.5. That kind of heavy usage makes him worth trying out on touchdowns, even at the -105 price.
That’s because the Browns have quietly been underwhelming defending the run so far, allowing 80+ yards to both Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving in the last two weeks. With the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites, there’s a chance that they’ll be playing with a lead, meaning more rushing volume for Warren. The Steelers can ease the pressure on Aaron Rodgers with the running game, especially with tough pass rushers like Mason Graham on the Browns.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Warren to find the end zone for the first time of the season in this spot.
KC Concepcion Touchdown Odds
KC Concepcion is a talented rookie wideout that the Browns took in the first round of this year’s draft. This is a player who gets targeted often in the underneath passing game due to his ability to generate yards after the catch. While it’s been a quiet start to the year for Concepcion, there are reasons to be intrigued.
We’ve seen Concepcion get targeted 20 times in three games, including nine times against the Panthers last week. He was only able to put up nine yards on those targets, but the fact that the Browns are making it a point of emphasis to put the ball in his hands is intriguing.
Since most of Concepcion’s targets come in the short-to-intermediate passing game, that works nicely for a touchdown prop. I can just picture a bubble screen in the red zone that Concepcion takes to the house.
But most importantly, we’re getting a nice price on this prop, as you can get Concepcion at longer than +300 odds at the time of this article. We’ll take a shot that this is his breakout game.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
