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The final game of NFL Wild Card Weekend takes place on Monday Night Football between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are defined by top-10 defenses and the limitations of their league-average offenses. This should be a physical, old-school style of football, and while we should not expect a high-scoring game, I am confident we will see at least a few touchdowns. That creates opportunities to attack the anytime touchdown scorer market. Let’s sift through the odds, identify value, and find some winners.
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NFL Week 17 Touchdown Picks: Texans vs. Steelers (Monday, January 12)
The total is set at , while the total touchdowns line sits at 3.5 with heavy juice on the over. These are some of the lowest numbers we have seen in these markets all season and the lowest of the weekend. That comes as no surprise given that the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers both feature top-10 defenses and league-average offenses.
Fortunately, there are ways to attack each defense, and both offenses have skill position players capable of exploiting those weaknesses. I do not expect many touchdowns, but there should be a few worth betting on. Let’s break down who is most likely to find the end zone. Below is the full odds board, followed by my best bets.
Texans at Steelers: Anytime Touchdown (ATD) Odds
| Anytime Touchdown Scorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nico Collins | +145 |
| Woody Marks | +165 |
| Jaylen Warren | +200 |
| DK Metcalf | +210 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | +220 |
| Dalton Schultz | +240 |
| Pat Freirmuth | +390 |
| Jayden Higgins | +390 |
| PIT D/ST | +500 |
| Nick Chubb | +525 |
Texans at Steelers: First Touchdown Odds
| First Touchdown Scorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Woody Marks | +650 |
| Nico Collins | +650 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | +900 |
| Dalton Schultz | +950 |
| Jaylen Warren | +1000 |
| DK Metcalf | +1000 |
| Jayden Higgins | +1500 |
| Pat Freirmuth | +1800 |
| HOU D/ST | +2200 |
| Connor Heyward | +2200 |
NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Dalton Schultz (+240)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season at defending opposing tight ends. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position.
This is an ideal matchup for Dalton Schultz. He ranks second on the Texans in targets and red-zone targets, and third in end-zone targets this season. Schultz has long been one of C.J. Stroud’s favorite options, and there is no reason to expect that to change here. Whether on a standard dropback or off play action, Schultz should see multiple scoring opportunities. At these odds, Dalton Schultz as an anytime touchdown scorer is well worth a wager.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: DK Metcalf (+210)
Scoring against the Houston Texans defense has been difficult all season. They have allowed just 2.1 touchdowns per game, with little consistency in how those scores occur. They have given up both long and short touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
Looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers roster, DK Metcalf stands out as their top touchdown threat. Despite missing several games, Metcalf leads the team in targets, red-zone targets, and end-zone targets. He remains one of the league’s best receivers at creating leverage and winning in the end zone. Even with Derek Stingley Jr. likely shadowing him throughout the game, Metcalf should have opportunities to score. At this price, DK Metcalf anytime touchdown scorer is a bet worth making.
Good luck with your NFL touchdown picks and the rest of your bets for the NFL Playoffs.
