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Best Bet: TENN +4.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Best Bet: U54.5 (-108)
Score Prediction: Texas 24, Tennessee 20
The Pick: Texas 24, Tennessee 20
We’re taking the underdog’s spread based on Tennessee’s home and Texas’ road trends, while the Under is also an option.
Game Betting Analysis
We’ll start with the total, leaning Under with Tennessee hitting it in their first two home games this season. Also, Tennessee has hit the Under in seven of eight games when facing an AP ranked school in September as an underdog. The underdog has covered the spread in Tennessee’s last eight games inside Neyland Stadium. Another ATS trends to consider for Tennessee is that Texas went 0-5 ATS on the road in 2025, so there’s slightly more conviction in the spread than the total but the conviction is even for either.
Texas-Tennessee Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Texas’s Offensive Line vs. Tennessee’s Pass Rush
Texas’s rebuilt offensive line has allowed just four sacks through three games and graded 89.9 on PFF’s pass-blocking scale against Ohio State — the best marks of Kyle Flood’s 71-game tenure — but now faces its toughest test yet: a Checker Neyland-packed Knoxville crowd and a Tennessee front that ranks third nationally with 13 sacks and 25 tackles for loss. Arch Manning has shown a tendency to hold the ball too long, and against a defense this disruptive, communication breakdowns up front turn into negative plays fast. If the line holds up the way it has all September, Manning gets time to operate against a defense built to take it away.
On the other side, Texas’s defense — Colin Simmons probable, Justus Terry out — has to slow down true freshman Faizon Brandon, who’s been flawless through three starts (6 TD, 0 INT, 7.4 yards per play, 510.3 total yards per game). Texas will lean on questionable RB Hollywood Smothers to control tempo and limit the possessions Brandon gets in front of a home crowd at its loudest in years. Keep Brandon’s rhythm off, and a freshman’s coming-out party becomes just another road environment for Texas.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Neyland Stadium – 58 ppg; 0-2 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 4
- TENN +4.5 (-105)
- Under 54.5 (-108)
Key Players
Texas Longhorns
- QB, Arch Manning — Last Game: 16/32, 161 yards, 2 TD; 10 carries, 53 yards
- WR, Cam Coleman — Last Game: 4 catches, 59 yards, 2 TD
Tennessee Volunteers
- QB, Faizon Brandon— Last Game: 18/26, 178 yards, TD; 11 carries, 47 yards, TD
- RB, DeSean Bishop — Last Game:9 carries, 42 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
