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Without context, the 2024 Washington Commanders season will feel like an aberration. The team has struggled to find consistency and success over the last twenty-odd years, with just five winning seasons since 2000. One of those winning seasons was in 2024, when the Commanders finished 12-5, making an unlikely run to the NFC Championship Game before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles. That 2024 season was made special by the performance of the offense, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who delivered arguably one of the greatest seasons by a rookie quarterback ever. The goal for the Commanders in 2025 was appropriately assessing where they were in Daniels’ timeline and putting the right pieces in place to make the playoffs again.
It would be easy to see the Commanders as a team clearly on the ascent after 2024, but they were an older and imperfect team in need of help on defense, as well as at their skill positions, if the Commanders were going to challenge for a Super Bowl. That didn’t materialize as they’d have hoped. The Commanders finished with a reverse 5-12 record in 2025, and looked like a shell of the team that knocked off the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the playoffs a season before. Daniels battled injuries for the majority of the season, playing in just seven games, but wasn’t as effective when on the field. His -0.01 EPA per play was 29th among quarterbacks, per Sümer Sports, but Daniels’ play was the least of the Commanders’ concerns. The defense finished the season 31st in EPA per play and 27th in success rate, which led to the team moving on from Joe Whitt Jr., hiring Minnesota Vikings’ passing game coordinator Daronte Jones to help build the defense.
After the disappointment of 2025, the Commanders were aggressive in their pursuit of rebuilding the defense. The front office added Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Tim Settle in free agency to strengthen the front seven, while the additions of Nick Cross, Rasul Douglas, and Amik Robertson serve to improve the third-worst pass defense in EPA in 2025. They also drafted Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles with the seventh pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Styles is an athletic marvel and will be a leader in the middle of Dan Quinn’s defense for years to come. There’s enough talent on the defense to be a middle-of-the-road unit in 2026, and if Jayden Daniels and the offense can bounce back from their tough season, the Commanders could be on the path back to the postseason. The unit will feel fresh with David Blough calling the plays, even if there haven’t been that many personnel changes. Nick Allegretti will take over as the team’s center from Tyler Biadiasz, who moved on in free agency, and rookie Antonio Williams and veteran tight end Chig Okonkwo will give some much-needed depth as pass-catchers.
2026 Washington Commanders Super Bowl Odds
Drafting Jayden Daniels and getting one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history in 2024 accelerated the Commanders’ timeline. The Super Bowl clock quietly starts when a team drafts a rookie quarterback, but when that quarterback sets the world on fire as a rookie, teams’ plans and timelines can quickly change. On paper, the Commanders don’t have the calibre of team ready to challenge for a Super Bowl—their +6000 odds on DraftKings reflect that sentiment—but the feeling inside the building will be that it’s possible with Daniels under center. The third-year quarterback has all of the potential in the world to be a constant top-ten star but needs to put last season’s injury woes and results behind him. That can happen, but Daniels alone doesn’t have the power to carry the Commanders to a Super Bowl.
Bet: No
2026 Washington Commanders NFC Championship Odds
The Commanders were thoroughly outclassed in the 2024 NFC Championship Game by the Eagles—their first trip to a title game since their Super Bowl win back in 1991—and, like the Super Bowl, making it back to the Championship Game will prove a tough task in 2026. The Commanders have the sixth-lowest odds to win the NFC for good reason. Even beyond their own weaknesses—how the defense will play out on paper, the potential lack of receiving options—the NFC is the stacked conference at the moment. The Commanders are comfortably the third or fourth best team in their own division, and would face even more challenges outside the division if they even made the playoffs. The NFC West hosts three of the five or six best teams in the NFL, the NFC North is, arguably, the toughest division in the NFL, and there’s even the possibility of the New Orleans Saints or Tampa Bay Buccaneers making some noise out of the NFC South. Winning the NFC is too tough a proposition for the Commanders.
Bet: No
2026 Washington Commanders NFC East Odds
Right now, the NFC East belongs to the Eagles and Cowboys. The teams have shared the NFC East crown for the last five seasons, with the Commanders winning the division back in 2020 in a surprising twist. On paper, the Eagles and Cowboys are strong favorites to challenge for the division again. The Eagles might have the most talented roster in the NFL, while the Cowboys will be looking to avenge their lost season in 2026 with a much-improved defense and one of the best offenses in the league. That leaves the Commanders likely battling for the third spot in the division. Their current odds of winning the division sit at +460, but it’ll take a massive turnaround, and missteps from the Eagles and Cowboys, to make it happen.
Bet: No
2026 Washington Commanders Win Total Odds
On the whole, the Commanders should be a better team in 2026. Jayden Daniels will hopefully be fully healthy for the entire season and behind an offensive line that could be one of the better units in the league if things fall into place. Second-year tackle Josh Conerly Jr. will need to make some strides, and Allegretti will have to hit the ground running as the team’s full-time center. But the bones of an improved team are there. The Commanders spent freely in the offseason to improve a team that feels well below expectations in 2025. They’re aiming for success in 2026 and are poised to be somewhat better. Their current win total sits at 7.5, but a stumbling block could be the tenth-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2026. It’ll be tight, but the Commanders might just sneak it.
Bet: Over
2026 Washington Commanders To Make The Playoffs Odds
The Commanders’ current odds of making the playoffs (+215) reflect a team that feels close, but is battling against a lot of strong competition to get the job done. Those odds are the 10th-worst in the NFL, and only the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, and Arizona Cardinals have longer odds in the NFC. The Commanders feel like the bridge between a good team and a bad team, which makes life tough in the ultra-competitive NFC. At best, the Commanders feel like a team in the hunt for a Wildcard spot, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them at 8-8 battling for the seventh seed heading into Week 18. Betting on the Commanders to make the postseason is betting on them to make major improvements in 2026. And on paper, they have. They could be a team that just sneaks into the postseason this year.
Bet: Yes
2026 Washington Commanders MVP Award Odds & Contenders
- Jayden Daniels
The Commanders’ success on the field in 2026 isn’t just paramount on how Jayden Daniels plays, but the former No. 2 overall pick will play the most important role in the team’s story. The defense is going to be better under Daronte Jones, and shiny new edge rusher Oweh could make a sizable impact, but the sole MVP contender on the Commanders is Daniels. As a rookie, Daniels finished seventh in MVP voting and won the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in short order, while ranking sixth in total EPA. Daniels has the goods to be one of the NFL’s most complete quarterbacks. He’s got a live arm, is a true dual-threat, and can truly be an everyday difference-maker for the Commanders over the next decade. If Daniels and the Commanders can be competitive in 2026, and the team bounces back and makes the playoffs, he’ll likely be at the helm of the ship. Naturally, that’ll lead to MVP buzz for the former LSU signal-caller.
Bet: Jayden Daniels
2026 Washington Commanders Schedule
- Week 1 – at Philadelphia, 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 2 – at Dallas, 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 3 – vs. Seattle, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 4 – vs. Indianapolis (London), 9:30 a.m. – NFLN
- Week 5 – vs. NY Giants, 1:00 p.m., FOX
- Week 6 – at San Francisco, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 7 – BYE
- Week 8 – vs. Philadelphia, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 9 – vs. LA Rams, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 10 – at NY Giants, 8:15 p.m. (TNF) – APVO
- Week 11 – vs. Cincinnati, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 12 – at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 13 – at Tennessee, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 14 – vs. Houston, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 15 – vs. Atlanta, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 16 – at Minnesota, TBD
- Week 17 – at Jacksonville, TBD
- Week 18 – vs. Dallas, TBD
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