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Whether you are fading the uncertainty or expecting regression to swing against them, selling high on a team you believe is overvalued can yield profitable returns. Below is a breakdown of three teams I believe are overvalued in the betting market entering 2026 and how I plan on betting against them this season.
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Teams Overvalued in the Betting Market Entering 2026
- Alabama
- Texas A&M
- Michigan
Alabama Crimson Tide
Once considered the power house of college football, Alabama has fallen hard back down to reality, failing to sniff the National Championship since their last appearance in 2021. Nick Saban’s sudden retirement at the end of the cycle forced them to scramble, leading to Kalen DeBoer who was fresh off of a successful campaign in Washington.
While I still believe in DeBoer’s talent as a head coach, it’s tough to ignore how underwhelming their offseason was, failing to address their ground game and offensive line after finishing last season ranked 99th in Rush Success Rate and 117th in Rush Explosiveness. With their back field projected to struggle, Alabama’s offense will once again be one dimensional, allowing opposing defenses to stretch out their coverage and clog their passing lanes.
The Crimson Tide’s regression on defense also raises red flags, dropping down to the middle of the board in PPA. With their defense failing to give them the support they need to mask their offense, Alabama will struggle to compete with the top of the SEC, keeping them out of contention for the conference title.
Speaking of the SEC, Alabama is currently listed at shorter odds to make the playoffs than LSU and Oklahoma, two teams I believe have a much higher ceiling than the Crimson Tide. While their non-conference schedule is advantageous, their conference slate is brutal, drawing Georgia and Texas A&M while having to hit the road to battle it out against LSU.
Still, Alabama being overvalued in the market creates a betting opportunity for us. Bet the Crimson Tide to go under their regular season win total of 8.5 with intentions of adding a separate wager on them to miss the playoffs once they enter conference play.
Texas A&M Aggies
Keeping our sights on another SEC “contender” Texas A&M is bound to regress after last year’s run to the playoffs. A run that was backed by a very favorable schedule, a slate that was littered with the bottom of the SEC to help propel them to the top of the playoff rankings. Once the Aggies were tested by an actual stalwart defense, their offense crumbled, scoring a measly three points in their 3-10 loss to Miami in the first round of the playoffs.
Heading into 2026, the Aggies are currently priced as one of the top contenders in the SEC even though both sides of the trenches are expected to regress after losing their key pieces on defense while failing to address their offensive line. The minimal additions to their offensive line is a massive cause for concern with Marcel Reed incapable of airing out the ball at a consistent rate, finishing last season ranked 81st in Efficiency in Passing Downs.
Like the Crimson Tide, the Aggies also draw the short end of the stick in regard to their schedule, finishing their year with three straight daunting matchups against Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Texas. With their schedule looking favorable on paper leading up to their final stretch of the season, we will be able to buy the Aggies to miss the playoffs at a discount.
Michigan Wolverines
At first glance, you would think Michigan is undervalued with their win total sitting at 8.5 while listed down the oddsboard to make the playoffs. The harsh reality for the Wolverines is that they are in for a long year, especially with Bryce Underwood showing zero signs of development throughout the offseason, holding their offense back in their spring and summer scrimmages.
Underwood’s lack of production through the air was on full display last season, finishing his 2025 campaign ranked near the bottom of the board in Pass Success Rate, EPA, and in Explosiveness. While Underwood shoulders a majority of the blame, his supporting cast also does him no favors, fielding an underwhelming group of pass catchers who are incapable of creating space to help widen his passing lanes.
Unfortunately for the Wolverines, their schedule will make it difficult for Underwood to take a step forward with his production under center, battling it out against Oklahoma, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. All formidable defenses in their own right who are more than capable of neutralizing Underwood in the back field.
Not only am I placing a wager on the Wolverines to go under their win total of 8.5, I will also look to fade their offense any chance I can get when matched up against a productive defense by betting the under on their team total. Don’t be surprised if we see a new name under center by the middle of the year.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
