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With the transfer portal running rampant, there are plenty of question marks looming over the landscape of college football, allowing teams to stay under the radar heading into 2026. From a stalwart defense turning Oklahoma into a National Championship contender to a total overhaul in Auburn, below are three teams I’m buying before the market catches up on their upside.
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Teams Undervalued in the Betting Market Entering 2026
- Oklahoma
- Auburn
- Kansas State
Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners defense were not just great in 2025, they were dominant, finishing the year ranked in the top-10 in Def Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and in Havoc. While their poor mark in Explosiveness was alarming, the Sooners ability to neutralize any offense they faced by consistently holding them out of scoring position was a spectacle.
Heading into the new year, the Sooners bring back a majority of their core that led them to success, drastically reducing the amount of variance in their contests. Should Oklahoma’s continuity also lead to a better mark in Explosiveness, they will be able to stall out their opponents drives at a higher rate, leading to an uptick in their total number of possessions on offense.
Speaking of the Sooners offense, positive regression looms large with John Mateer no longer dealing with a hand injury. The damage caused to his throwing hand clearly affected the quality of his throws last season, completing just 62.2% of his passes.
While their schedule looks daunting on paper, a 9-3 finish with losses to high quality opponents will still keep them in contention for the playoffs. An early date against Michigan also bodes well for Oklahoma by taking advantage of a new system that has given Bryce Underwood fits in their spring and summer scrimmages before he is able to iron out the kinks.
With Mateer giving the Sooners the versatility they need to be competitive on offense, their resurgence will complement their stalwart defense, turning them into a contender capable of making a deep run in the playoffs. At their current price, buy Oklahoma to make the playoffs, win the SEC, and hoist the National Championship before their odds steadily trickle down.
Auburn Tigers
When it comes to season long wagers, I try to avoid tying up money on teams going through a complete overhaul. Auburn is one of the few exceptions this season, bringing in South Florida’s head coach Alex Golesh and their quarterback Byrum Brown who led the Bulls to top-25 marks in Off Success Rate and in PPA.
The injection of talent will help elevate an offense that struggled to find their footing last season, a unit who finished the year near the bottom of the board in Pass Success Rate and in Havoc Allowed. By cutting down on their turnovers, the Tigers will be able to sustain their drives down the field and get into scoring position at a higher rate, improving their probability of scoring.
To help establish their new identity on offense, Auburn kicks off their year with two favorable matchups against Baylor and Southern Miss. Two reeling defenses who are incapable of holding their opponents in front of the sticks per their below league average marks in Def Success Rate and in Explosiveness.
Once conference play starts, Auburn’s schedule gets much tougher, jockeying with the likes of Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama. It is worth noting the Rebels and Crimson Tide are both expected to regress after a turbulent offseason, giving the Tigers plenty of opportunities to clear the over on their win total.
Kansas State Wildcats
Like Auburn, Kansas State is also going through a change at the helm, bringing in Collin Klein who is fresh off of a successful stint as an offensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Running Klein’s offense is Avery Johnson, an electric dual threat quarterback who is just as lethal with his legs as he is with his arm, averaging 4.4 yards per carry in 2025.
With their offense expected to recapture last year’s success, all eyes on their defense, a unit who held them back from being a well rounded unit due to their underwhelming front seven. After a productive offseason, the Wildcats are well equipped to stuff the run at a higher rate, allowing their secondary to stretch out their coverage to help cover more ground on the back end.
Kansas State’s schedule is also advantageous with the Wildcats projected to be the favorite in all 12 games while getting to dodge Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU, the three top contenders in the Big 12. Kansas State also gets Houston at home, a game that may decide their fate in regard to making the conference championship. Place a wager on Kansas State to clear the over on their win total and sprinkle some couch change on them to win the Big 12 as well.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
