Which NFL Teams Enter the 2026-27 Season Overvalued?

More than half of the NFL will have a reason to talk themselves into Super Bowl contention in 2026. After busy offseasons, drafts, and preseason preparations, multiple teams will think: “Why not us?”

The league has more of a sense of parity now than in recent years, so it does feel like more teams than ever before have a legitimate chance of winning a ring in 2026. However, some teams enter the season as overvalued entities. Three in particular strike a chord. 

Teams Overvalued in the NFL Betting Market Entering 2026

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

• Super Bowl Winner:
• AFC Championship:
• AFC West Winner:

Few teams have earned the benefit of the doubt quite the way the Kansas City Chiefs have in recent seasons. By all accounts, the Chiefs of the last few years are nothing short of dynastic in nature. No team has more regular-season wins than the Chiefs since 2018 (96), and they’ve made it to five of the last seven Super Bowls, winning three in the process.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been a bane to the NFL, perennially ripping the hearts out of their opponents, even when it felt like the circumstances weren’t always right in Kansas City. They finally ran out of road in 2025, with the Chiefs missing the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era, and for the first time since 2014. A 6-11 record was compounded by Mahomes tearing his ACL, but the Chiefs were on a collision course with a season without playoff football long before that.

The Chiefs have made some shrewd moves this offseason, adding Seahawks’ running back Kenneth Walker and Patriots’ defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga in free agency, and drafting LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane and Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, but there were significant losses, too. The Chiefs got that extra first-round pick by virtue of trading All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams before fellow cornerback Jaylen Watson followed in free agency. In the long run, it could turn out to be an excellent move, but there’s an argument that it negatively affects their Super Bowl odds in 2026, though you wouldn’t know it. The Chiefs have fifth-best Super Bowl odds in the NFL.

That’s that benefit of the doubt in play. And it’s fair. Mahomes is the face of the NFL, and arguably still the best quarterback in the league. A force of nature that has routinely helped carry below-average Chiefs’ offenses to lofty heights. But Mahomes is coming back from an ACL tear; it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see him start slow in 2026. If he does, the Chiefs just don’t have the horses to carry the load. Walker is an excellent addition to help create explosives in the run game, but the Chiefs’ group of receivers is among the worst in the NFL. Travis Kelce is now 36, and almost 37, and can’t be the ever-reliable YAC guy in the passing game. The offensive line has the chance to be a strong unit again, which will help tenfold, but there are too many question marks surrounding this Chiefs team. Especially if they want to be seen as Super Bowl frontrunners once again.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Super Bowl Winner:
• AFC Championship:
• AFC West Winner:

Since hiring Jim Harbaugh to be the team’s head coach back in 2024, the Los Angeles Chargers have started to feel more and more like a buttoned-up NFL team, as opposed to a perennial misfit organization. Back-to-back 11-6 seasons have ended with consecutive Wildcard losses, which have proven to be disappointing indictments of the team’s progress. But each time, the Chargers have responded well in the offseason, and now, heading into 2026, they feel like a potential dark horse in the NFL. But with Super Bowl odds of +1700, seventh-highest in the league, the Chargers are a touch overvalued.

There’s a lot to like about the team. The hiring of Mike McDaniel as the offensive coordinator is an excellent move. McDaniel helped lift the Dolphins’ offense into a different stratosphere for a couple of years with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. There’s no telling the heights the Chargers and McDaniel could reach with Justin Herbert at quarterback. The former first-round pick has had his doubters—mostly due to a couple of bad postseason performances—but remains as talented a quarterback as they come.

McDaniel will have the option to run and call plays that weren’t available to him with Tagovailoa as his quarterback. The ceiling for this team could be high, but persistent issues along the offensive line have continued to plague the Chargers. The front office signed free-agent center Tyler Biadasz to a three-year, $30 million contract, filling arguably the team’s biggest need in the process, but Biadasz suffered a torn ACL in practice in August and is out for the season. Pushing the Chargers back to square one.

Once again, the Chargers’ interior offensive line could be a unit to worry about in 2026. Rookie second-round pick Jake Slaughter is now expected to start at center, with Cole Strange—who is on his third team in three seasons after being released by the Dolphins this offseason—and Kayode Awosika projected to start at either guard spot. The two tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, are among the best in the league, but interior pressure plagued the Chargers last season as Herbert was sacked 54 times, the third-most in the league. All of this is without mentioning the defense, too. 

There are some talented players on the Chargers’ defense. Derwin James is still one of the league’s top safeties, and the edge pairing of Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu can rack up the pressures. But the talent at cornerback and at linebacker might leave Chargers’ fans wanting more. And without Jesse Minter, a top defensive coordinator who is now the head coach of the Ravens, there are rightful questions that need to be answered by new defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary. The Chargers are still going to be playoff hopefuls, but framing them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders is a step too far.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Super Bowl Winner:
• AFC Championship:
• AFC North Winner: [

The 2025 NFL season was another lost year for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals finished with a 6-11 record, their worst since Joe Burrow’s rookie season, and missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season. Burrow suffered a turf toe injury early in the 2025 season that required surgery, and subsequently missed nine games. With him on the field, the Bengals are one of the league’s best offenses. Burrow is a top six or seven quarterback in the NFL and has arguably the best receiver in the world to throw to in Ja’Marr Chase, as well as an excellent second option in Tee Higgins. But things aren’t always rosy in Cincinnati.

Umbrage should be taken with the defense first and foremost, though. The Bengals have been a bottom-10 defense in EPA per play in each of the last seasons, per Sümer Sports, and finished the season 29th and 30th in EPA per play allowed and success rate allowed, respectively. If the tide is going to turn in Cincinnati, it has to start with major improvements on the defensive side of the ball.

On paper, those changes have materialised in a way. The Bengals traded their 2026 first-round pick for All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence—an unprecedented move for an often risk-averse front office—and added safety Bryan Cook, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen in free agency, as well as adding Texas A&M Aggies edge rusher Cashius Howell in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft. On paper, the Bengals are an improved unit and now have +1800 odds to win the Super Bowl—eighth-highest in the NFL and on par with the New England Patriots and Houston Texans.

Those are lofty odds and expectations, but so much about the Bengals excitement is based on “what if” scenarios. What if Burrow can stay healthy for a full season? What if the Bengals’ defense can become a top-half unit? Both can happen. Burrow especially, even if he has missed significant time in 2023 and 2025, was fully healthy in 2024 and led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns. But for a team that hasn’t made the postseason since 2022, a lot is being made of their Super Bowl chances. 

What if the defense can’t enforce itself as a top-half unit and once again lingers around the bottom half of the league? That’s a realistic outcome. Dexter Lawrence can make this unit a lot more fearsome by himself. He’s a force multiplier. But the Bengals will need a host of players to really step up in 2026. Linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight have got to take steps forward.

The two second-year pros suffered together in their rookie seasons, but have the chance to elevate themselves in year two. Getting consistent pass-rushing production from Shemar Stewart, Myles Murphy, and Boye Mafe will be key, too. Can the Bengals end their short playoff hiatus? Most certainly, but banking on them as Super Bowl contenders while the defense has so much to do is a tough ask.

Photo Credit: REUTERS