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It’s time for Day 4 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We’ve got four games on tap for Sunday, June 14th. Germany faces Curacao at 1 p.m. ET, Netherlands vs. Japan at 4 p.m. ET, Cote d’Ivoire vs. Ecuador at 7 p.m. ET, and Sweden vs. Tunisia at 10 p.m. ET.
The games that stand out to me are the Netherlands vs. Japan and Cote d’Ivoire vs. Ecuador, but there are still ways to find value in each of these games on the Sunday slate.
With that in mind, let’s dive into our top prediction market trades for Sunday, June 14.
Top Prediction Market Trades: Best World Cup Trades for Sunday, June 14
Germany Wins By Over 3.5 Goals: Yes (0.60¢ at Kalshi)
Here we have one of the biggest mismatches of the entire tournament. Germany is projected to win a blowout against Curacao. The Germans have every incentive to run up the score to improve their goal differential as they try to finish first in a tough group that also includes Ecuador and Cote d’Ivoire.
Germany has a lot of attacking talent with a direct approach, led by Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Jamal Musiala. They’re the kind of team that can put up 5+ goals.
This has the look of a 4-0 or 5-1 type of game, so we’ll ride with Germany against one of the weakest teams in the tournament.
Netherlands/Japan Over 2.5 Goals: No (0.50¢ at Kalshi)
The second match on the slate is one of the best of the group stage with Netherlands taking on Curacao. These are the two best teams in Group F, firmly ahead of Sweden and Tunisia.
That means we could see a tight game, where both teams try to avoid a costly mistake.
This has the look of a 1-1 or 1-0 type of game. I like the price at 50 cents on the Under 2.5 goals here.
Ivory Coast/Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals: No (0.69¢ at Kalshi)
The third game is another intriguing matchup with Cote d’Ivoire taking on Ecuador. Ecuador is one of my favorite dark horses in the tournament, boasting an elite defense that held opponents to five goals in 18 games during CONMEBOL qualifying.
That helped them finish 2nd in the group, ahead of Colombia and Brazil, but behind Argentina.
The issue with Ecuador is that they struggle to score as well, putting up only 14 goals in those 18 matches during qualifying. This is one of the toughest groups with Germany also included. These two teams will likely look to avoid mistakes in this one.
Under 2.5 goals is my favorite play on the Sunday slate.
Sweden to Win vs. Tunisia (0.52¢ at Kalshi)
Sweden is a team that only qualified thanks to their results in Nations League. Given their poor showing in UEFA Qualifying, many are underestimating them, but we have to acknowledge that they’re starting to play better under manager Graham Potter, who took over in October 2025.
Potter’s tactics helped Sweden turn it around, beating Ukraine and Poland en route to a World Cup berth.
Meanwhile, Tunisia has been underwhelming leading up to the tournament, coming off a blowout loss to Belgium in a friendly.
We’re getting a reasonable price on Sweden to win here, so we’ll take a shot.
Not in a Legal Sports Betting State? Consider Prediction Markets
If sports betting isn’t available in your state, prediction markets offer another way to participate in sports-related events. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events, with prices fluctuating based on market sentiment. Bettors have a chance to take early exits on their positions, providing an opportunity to secure profit before an event is settled.
Several platforms have expanded their sports offerings in recent years, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Fanatics Markets. These sites allow users to trade contracts on outcomes ranging from championship winners and award races to individual game results, depending on the platform and available markets.
Prediction markets operate under different regulatory frameworks than traditional sportsbooks, and availability can vary by state and platform. Before signing up, be sure to check each site’s eligibility requirements and terms of service to confirm whether you can participate where you live.
Photo Credit: AP/Michael Probst
