2026 John Deere Classic Odds & Golf DFS Picks: Four Longshot Best Bets
It’s another birdie-fest week for golf DFS contestants on the PGA Tour, as we head to the Quad Cities for the 2026 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Although birdie-fests have traditionally been the best opportunity to fire away at tour golf sleepers with longer odds, the lack of field depth at the John Deere Classic has historically led to fewer surprises. Just three players over the last 12 years have gone on to win at golf odds longer than 100-1.
Generous fairways and greens have paved the way for winning scores to eclipse -20 year over year at this event, but players will need to show solid leading form in both their ball striking and short game in order to separate from the field here, making TPC Deere Run a slightly more imposing test than your typical putting contest.
Ahead, we’ll dive into the most viable longshot options to consider for the 2026 John Deere Classic.
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John Deere Classic Golf DFS: Betting Odds
TPC Deere Run: Course Introduction
For the second week in a row, there will be little resistance offered by the course, as TPC Deere Run lacks any meaningful penalty for inaccurate ball-strikers. Not much strategy is required to score well at this venue, as the successful debutants continue to prove year-over-year. It figures to be another week where the hottest putters are the ones who can separate. Birdies will be a commodity at this venue, and we’ve seen many different avenues for players to score here. While distance always tends to be advantageous, accurate plodders have fared just as well here over the years. The most in-form players, with the ability to spike with their irons and putters, tend to rise to the top at TPC Deere Run.
John Deere Classic Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, check out my John Deere Classic betting preview.
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John Deere Classic: Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the John Deere Classic, Recent Form, Birdies or Better Gained, and Course History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price. Like the Travelers Championship last week, this event offers an appealing buy-low opportunity for more inconsistent players who have proven most capable of contending on easier layouts where streaky putting is the key to separation.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2025 John Deere Classic. Stats pulled across the last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Denny McCarthy:
At the Travelers Championship, Brian Harman was the flavor of the week on the merit of his great course history. Denny McCarthy fits that mold this week, as his previous four John Deere Classic finishes of T11, T7, T6, and T6 are hard to ignore.
The current form is encouraging too, as McCarthy enters hot off a T14 finish at TPC River Highlands, one of the top overall comp courses to TPC River Highlands. That continued a stretch of seven consecutive made cuts, in which he’s shown his usual game of average ball striking and elite putting. That combination should continue to translate well at the John Deere Classic, whose easy scoring conditions often reward the player who is capable of getting the hottest on the greens.
Ben Kohles:
You won’t find many players who are hotter than Ben Kohles at the moment, as one of the most accurate players on Tour has finally started to piece the other elements of his game together too. Kohles broke through for a win at the Korn Ferry Tour’s BMW Charity Pro-Am, and has not looked back since, with finishes of T29, T23, and T19 over his next three starts.
TPC Deere Run has a long history of rewarding short-yet-accurate approach marksmen who can generate ample mid-iron approaches from the middle of the fairway. A venue that has crowned similar plodders like Brian Campbell, JT Poston, Ryan Moore, Brian Harman, and Zach Johnson should cater just as well to Kohles’ skill sets. He ranks 19th overall in my model, and as the No. 1 overall player in the field in terms of both SG: APP and Driving Accuracy over the last 36 rounds, he has a legitimate path to go low on this short, positional layout.
Austin Eckroat:
Placing one spot better than Kohles in my model this week, Austin Eckroat may prove to be the most overlooked talent in this field. A two-time PGA Tour winner in just his fourth full season at the highest level, we know by now to respect the ceiling of this talented ball striker. While 2026 has not been his best year, he’s started to turn a corner in the second half, with an active streak of seven consecutive made cuts and two top-10 finishes over that span.
Eckroat’s game is best suited for easier scoring conditions where around-the-green skill is less emphasized, and the scales are instead tipped in favor of precise wedge play. That is TPC Deere Run in a nutshell, so it’s not surprising to see Eckroat thrive in his 2025 John Deere Classic debut, finishing T11. Eckroat ranks top-15 in SG: APP, Prox: <150 yards, and Birdies or Better Gained, making him an ideal profile fit to go low in the Quad Cities.
Carson Young:
Brian Campbell proved last year that no longshot is too far-fetched to back at the John Deere Classic. If another volatile, short-hitting sleeper who can separate himself with his driving accuracy and wedge play emerges to win again in 2026, I believe it’s Young who stands the best chance to follow suit. Young has finished T5 in each of the last two years at the John Deere Classic, and he’s followed a very simple formula to do so: Hit fairways, hit greens, and make putts. Golf is never that simple, but a course like TPC Deere Run, which offers generous fairways and short overall yardage, can make it easier for accuracy specialists like Young to find repeated success.
Though splitting time between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour this season, Young has made the most of his opportunities on the big stage. He’s made five out of seven cuts in PGA Tour events this year and has finished in the top 20 in each of his last three Korn Ferry Tour starts. Not bad for a player priced this far down the board with such strong course history at TPC Deere. Run.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these John Deere Classic golf DFS picks!
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Photo Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster
