2026 John Deere Classic Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic returns to the Quad Cities for another 2026 PGA TOUR contest slated at TPC Deere Run. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential payouts. Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, and Eric Cole are the favorites for this year’s John Deere Classic.

Nothing runs like a Deere, and, in the case of TPC Deere Run, there’s truly nothing else quite like it on the PGA Tour. My namesake’s tournament is next on the PGA TOUR schedule. We head to Silvis, Illinois, for the 2026 John Deere Classic in a tournament bereft of star power that truly is wide open for the taking. In this article, we’ll look ahead at the John Deere Classic odds, favorites, trends, and key stats for your tournament research.

Although the best players in the world usually skip this event in favor of a travel week over the pond, the John Deere Classic always seems to produce great drama and log-jammed leaderboards with players of diverse skillsets. TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course by any means, but the presence of undulated fairways, steep elevation changes, and tight doglegs requires players to use every club in their bag, placing slightly more of a premium on ball striking and short game than a typical birdie-fest. 

Expecting continued low scoring, I’m looking for a balance of Birdie or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, and Comp Course History on other similar short and easy courses. This venue should reward the most precise ball strikers, who are able to convert a volume of birdie looks.

Let’s run through the key facts and info about TPC Deere Run ahead of the 2026 John Deere Classic.

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The John Deere Classic is always a natural bye week for the world’s best. Before the introduction of the Scottish Open on the TOUR schedule in 2022, this event was always slotted the week prior to The Open Championship, with final qualifying spots and a charter flight across the pond up for grabs for top-three finishers. With a trip to the U.K. still looming for next week’s Genesis Scottish Open, a majority of the best players in the world once again bypassed Silvis to prep for the final major of the year.

In what has historically been the weakest field of the PGA TOUR season, this actually shapes up to be a very exciting group of competitors. There are eight OWGR top-50 players in the field this week, up from just five in 2025.

World No. 13, Chris Gotterup, headlines as the expected favorite, with finishes of T4, MC, and T21 over his first three John Deere Classic appearances. Other headliners this week include Ben Griffin, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Jacob Bridgeman, Keegan Bradley, JT Poston, and Eric Cole.

Notably, each of these top-6 players was in the field for the 2024 John Deere Classic, with each finishing inside the top-30. So, it’s clear the headliners enjoy coming to the Quad Cities, and have expectations to contend this week. 

Jackson Koivun may be the most popular storyline to follow this week. He officially turned pro ahead of the US Open, and immediately validated that he belongs on the biggest stage, finishing T23. He finished T11 as an amateur last year, joining the likes of Chris Gotterup (T4), Michael Thorbjornsen (T17), Ludvig Aberg (T4) to play well here in their debuts. Blades Brown may fall in line as the next young star to shine in their debut on this stage.

Brian Campbell picked up his second playoff victory of his 2025 season at this event last year, edging past Emiliano Grillo. He’ll be joined by Davis Thompson, JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth, Dylan Frittelli, Zach Johnson, and Michael Kim as past champions in the field this week. 

INTRODUCTION TO TPC DEERE RUN

TPC Deere Run is a fun course in the Quad Cities between Illinois and Iowa. This event has historically been kind to local Midwesterners. Players like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Doug Ghim, and Adam Schenk have enjoyed putting on a show for local fans.

In its 53-year history on TOUR, the event has consistently produced dramatic and climactic finishes. Similar to the Travelers, we’ve come to expect playoffs and one-stroke victories. Winners have emerged from a playoff or one stroke 17 times since 2000, although that gap has widened in the past couple of years.

Because top players routinely choose to skip this event, it’s also been a launching pad for young players. Jordan Spieth secured his first here, holing out from the greenside bunker on 18 to force a playoff at the age of 19. Davis Thompson, Bryson DeChambeau, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, and Brian Harman also notched their first career wins at this event. It’s a great time to cast aside “win equity” from an outright betting perspective and a great opportunity for the mid-tier players on TOUR. Young talents like Michael Thorbjornsen, Blades Brown, Jackson Koivun, Pierceson Coody, and Johnny Keefer, who are still in search of their first PGA TOUR wins, have a great opportunity ahead of themselves in the Quad Cities.

With fairways and greens above average in size, this represents yet another week where the players with the hottest irons and putting will rise to the top of the leaderboard. While course history is relatively not predictive here, results on other short-course birdie fests have served as a strong indicator of better results at the John Deere Classic. In 2022, JT Poston won this event the week after finishing T2 at the Travelers Championship, despite having no finishes better than T64 in four prior John Deere Classic starts.

How It Breaks Down

TPC Deere Run is a traditional, angular, tree-lined course with Bentgrass greens and fairways and very thick Kentucky bluegrass rough. Organizers like to move the tee boxes around often at TPC Deere Run, but the stock yardage is 7,268 for this par 71. It features three par 5s, four par 3s and 11 par 4s.

The hole distribution measures very balanced across the par 3s and par 4s. So, we needn’t hone in on players who specialize in a particular range. Further, the breakdown of average proximity ranges on approach fall closely in line with the PGA TOUR average. This course should suit the best all-around approach players who can generate birdie opportunities with every club. All three of the par 5s funnel to the 550-600 yard range. That is the one area I’ll look to hone in on, as capitalizing on the Par-5 Scoring is crucial this week.

Twelve holes at TPC Deere Run have a scoring average under par. The easiest scoring opportunities lie on the three par 5s and three par 4s, which play under 400 yards. Hole No. 2, the 561-yard par 5, is the easiest on the course. It averages more than a half stroke under par and yields a 4% eagle rate, one of the highest on TOUR. Over the years, TPC Deere Run has annually ranked in the top five on the PGA TOUR in Birdie Rate. The winning score has pushed beyond -20 in nine of the last 12 years. I expect we’ll see another winning score beyond -20.

Traits And Recent Notable Facts

TPC Deere Run’s best defense may actually be the field itself. If all the top players in the world came here annually, I would expect winning scores to commonly fall in the mid-twenties under par. Average scoring on both the par 3s and par 4s has been amongst the easiest on TOUR, with the par 5s also producing more scoring than average. 

Although the fairways measure wider than TOUR average (between 36 to 40 yards), and players annually hit them well over 70% of the time (about 5-6% higher than TOUR average), misses incur steep penalties. With four-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough, Deere Run ranks top five among most difficult courses to play out of the rough. Similarly, the rough around the greens will require some touch to navigate. We’ve seen SG: ARG correlate strongly with success at the John Deere Classic, an unusual trait for a birdie-fest event. Any bogeys on the card can really derail a player’s round.

With greens of over 5,500 square feet on average, players have also reached in regulation at a high clip. They have had an easier time holing putts here than the average PGA TOUR course across both long and short ranges. The absence of resistance to hit both fairways and greens in regulation opens the course up to more randomness. Less of a premium exists on the ball-striking categories. But with such a high volume of birdies needed, it’s still a week you’ll want to align on the top ball strikers.

TPC DEERE RUN COURSE SPECS

• Yards: 7,268
• Par: 71 (4x 3s / 11x 4s / 3x 5s)
• Greens: Bent (Fast)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft. (Above-average)
• Average Fairways Width: 37 yards (Above-average)
• Rough: 4″ Kentucky Bluegrass (Thick)
• Architect: D.D. Weibring
• Historic Cut Line: -3
• Comp Courses: TPC River Highlands, Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield CC, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, Oakdale G&CC, CC of Jackson, Pebble Beach GL

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

With wide fairways, large greens, and weak fields, accurate ball strikers consistently find success at this event. Course history has been a mixed bag, but there are certain archetypes of players who are comfortable on these greens and can repeatedly dial up the same formula of fairways and greens in regulation needed to keep pace with the low scoring at this event.

Generally speaking, it’s taken players one or two years of prior experience to see the course before they’ve gone on to win. But there are always exceptions, as Dylan Frittelli won in his 2019 debut. Ludvig Aberg impressed with a T4 finish in his first John Deere Classic appearance in 2023. Luke Clanton spared no time acclimating either, finishing T2 in his 2024 debut.

Looking at recent John Deere Classic results, only nine players have had multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes Lucas Glover, Seamus Power, Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Denny McCarthy, Mark Hubbard, Adam Schenk, Carson Young, and JT Poston

Just nine players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Zach Johnson, Seamus Power, Brendon Todd, Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, Justin Lower, Andrew Novak, Michael Thornbjornsen, and Davis Thompson. 

The top 10 players in Course History at TPC Deere Run are: Davis Thompson, Emiliano Grillo, Jordan Spieth, Michael Thorbjornsen, Lucas Glover, Kevin Yu, Denny McCarthy, Luke Clanton, Seamus Power, and Ben Griffin. That paints a very clear course profile picture of accurate approach specialists with spike putting upside and proven results on comp short positional courses who are best suited to attack TPC Deere Run.

Course Comps

As a par-71 at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Deere Run is short by PGA TOUR standards. Still, it features too many long par 3s and par 4s beyond 450 yards to be classified with all other short TOUR courses. With tight tree lines and thick rough that force layups, the formula players have used to find success on other short courses should translate well.

You won’t have to look far to find the top comp course this week, as the last two host venues on the PGA TOUR really do embody all of the relevant characteristics of TPC Deere Run. Both TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club feature tree lines, a premium on accurate ball striking, and thick, penal rough surrounding the fairways and greens. At the Travelers Championship, in particular, Jordan Spieth has had repeated crossover success, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, and JT Poston.

In addition to TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club, I’m also referencing TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, Country Club of Jackson, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club as easy but less positional golf courses where a driver-heavy approach can still position players with ample birdie opportunities.

But, for accurate ball strikers like Poston, Berger, and Zach Johnson, a fairway-heavy approach will work well here, too. For that reason, courses like Pebble Beach GL and Sedgefield CC also serve as strong comp courses.

Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History at TPC Deere Run are: Lucas Glover, Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Daniel Berger, Eric Cole, Max Greyserman, Sungjae Im, and Jordan Spieth.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER WITH JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS

• SG: APP / SG: BS
• SG: ARG
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Good Drives Gained
• Par-4 Scoring
• Par 5: Scoring
• Prox: 75-150
• SG: TOT (Easy Courses)
• SG: Putting (Bent) / 3-Putt Avoidance
• Course & Comp Course History

The best starting point for me in this mini birdie-fest swing of the season would seem to be isolating Birdies or Better Gained. The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are: Eric Cole, Max Greyserman, Pierceson Coody, Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin, Blades Brown, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, and Johnny Keefer.

Approach performance hasn’t predicted success as much at the John Deere as most other courses, given the larger greens and high Green In Regulation percentage. But, it still stands at a premium in an expected birdie-fest. The 10 best approach players entering this week are: Ben Kohles, Tom Kim, Zac Blair, Daniel Berger, Johnny Keefer, Jackson Suber, Mark Hubbard, Austin Smotherman, Zach Bauchou, and JT Poston.

At TPC Deere Run, there are very few long iron approaches needed; instead, concentrating on the 100-150 yard range. The top 10 in Proximity gained from this range are: Matt Kuchar, Taylor Montgomery, Blades Brown, Austin Eckroat, Carson Young, Jacob Bridgeman, Daniel Berger, Zac Blair, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, and Michael Kim.

When combining SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Ball Striking on Comp Courses to isolate the precise ball strikers, just six players rank top 40 in each: JT Poston, Daniel Berger, Jacob Bridgeman, Adam Svensson, William Mouw, and Ben Kohles.

Course Fit by Hole Ranges

Par-4 Scoring is a bit of an overrated stat at TPC Deere Run. But given the importance of making putts, and the presence of 11 par 4s, I think it’s a slightly better reference point for recent form than SG: T2G. With the diverse spread of par-4 hole ranges at TPC Deere Run, it should serve as a helpful resource to identify the players who can best position themselves to generate birdies. The top-10 of par-4 scorers this week includes: Doug Ghim, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, JT Poston, Jordan Spieth, Michael Thorbjornsen, Chris Gotterup, Keegan Bradley, Eric Cole, and Ben Griffin.

Par-5 Scoring from 550-600 rates of particular importance this week. That should favor the players with plus distance who are able to reach in two and more easily capitalize on these birdie opportunities. The top 10 players in Par-5: Scoring are: Taylor Montgomery, Mac Meissner, Jackson Suber, Tony Finau, Matt Wallace, Aldrich Potgieter, Kevin Yu, Jordan Spieth, Jackson Koivun, and Keith Mitchell.

The ideal fit for this course should rank above average in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Short Game, Birdie or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions) and Comp Course History. There are 10 players in the 2026 field who meet the same criteria: Chris Gotterup, Tom Kim, Mac Meissner, Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole, JT Poston, Max Greyserman, Jacob Bridgeman, Blades Brown, and AJ Ewart.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week, many of the characteristics we’d come to expect from the average TOUR course continue to pop at TPC Deere Run. The most notable changes compared to TOUR average are the de-prioritization of Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT. With distance advantage mitigated by forced layups and penal rough, and the scoring opportunities coming predominantly from the par 4s and par 5s, that would all seem to check out.

Instead, SG: ARG, Par-4: 400-450, and Good Drives Gained make the most notable jumps in importance. It’s natural to dismiss around-the-green skillsets on a course that routinely yields winning scores beyond 20-under par. However, players are not completely immune to missing these greens in regulation, and history has shown that avoiding bogeys by scrambling for pars is a necessary skill set at this event.

There are eight players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Eric Cole, Mac Meissner, Tom Kim, JT Poston, Jackson Suber, Doug Ghim, Adam Svensson, and AJ Ewart.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: BLADES BROWN

Year after year, the John Deere Classic continues to serve as the launching pad for young, promising talents on their road to superstardom. It is where future major champions, Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau broke through for their first career PGA Tour wins. More recently, we’ve seen the best collegiate players excel in their debuts here, with players like Luke Clanton, Jackson Koivun, Chris Gotterup, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Ludvig Aberg all finishing top-20 in their John Deere Classic Debuts.

Having just turned 19 years old last month, Brown is younger than all of the top talents who have successfully come through the Quad Cities before him, so I’m trying my best to pump the breaks on my expectations. But the truth is, he’s given us more evidence that he’s ready for the big stage than any of those other young guns.

Brown has already made seven starts on the PGA Tour this season, missing the cut only once with four top-20 finishes. The throughline for Brown has been a simple one: the easier the course, the better he plays. Brown went toe-to-toe with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at The American Express where he narrowly missed a putt for 59 on his final hole. His best finish of the season came at the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished 3rd. Between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, he’s finished no worse than T26 over his last seven starts, with three top-3 finishes over the last three months.

Simply put, TPC Deere Run does not play or feel demonstrably different from a Korn Ferry Tour venue, so it would only be natural to see Brown add to his tremendous 2026 resumé at the John Deere Classic.

2026 John Deere Classic Odds: DFS Player Pool

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2026 John Deere Classic odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

John Deere Classic Odds: Model Results & Breakdown

2026 John Deere Classic Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Par-5: Scoring, and SG: Putting (L36, Bent, 3-Putt Avoidance), followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: ARG, SG: P and SG: TOT (L12 Rounds), and Good Drives Gained.

Model Favorites

Not too surprisingly on a course which asks many of the same questions as TPC River Highlands (Can you make a birdie here? Can you make a birdie there?), Eric Cole holds the No. 1 spot in my model this week. Cole has done everything but win over the last two months, with five top-10 finishes over his last seven starts. Whenever that elusive first career PGA Tour win does come for the mini tour standout, it is likely to be on a short and easy-scoring venue like TPC Deere Run, which caters well to Cole’s strengths of wedge play and putting.

After Cole, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Keith Mitchell, Mac Meissner, JT Poston, Jackson Koivun, Chris Gotterup, Doug Ghim, Ben Griffin, Tom Kim, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

There is not one single player I feel I have to build my card around this week when odds open on Monday, so I’ll likely take a reactive approach after seeing how the board falls. Many of the same players I liked at last week’s Travelers Championship like Ben Griffin, Eric Cole, and JT Poston are still bounce-back considerations for me at presumably better odds. Jackson Koivun, Blades Brown and, Emiliano Grillo also stand out as potential values.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2026 John Deere Classic odds!

COMPARE 2026 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS

Photo Credit: AP/Ross D. Franklin