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We missed on Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Chase Meidroth on Monday. We’ll look to have a winning night on Tuesday to put an end to this lengthy cold streak. We’re going to focus on hitters priced at +500 odds or longer.
Today, we’re going with Ryan Jeffers, Michael Massey, and Cam Smith. I like the matchup and price for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-317 (-2.13 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, August 18
Ryan Jeffers Home Run Odds
Ryan Jeffers is currently slashing .279/.389/.484 with 10 home runs in 254 plate appearances. This includes a 10.3% barrel rate and a .205 ISO. That’s quite impressive when you consider that his strikeout rate is only at 16.5%.
While Jeffers is only slashing .229/.351/.292 in August, failing to homer since July 31st, I’m willing to take a shot on him tonight. The price is longer than +550 at the time of this article, plus this is a projected high-scoring game, with a nine-run total, one of the highest on the slate.
We’re also getting favorable weather in Minnesota, with forecasts calling for 8 MPH winds blowing out to right field. Jeffers is facing Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.27 HR/9 on the season. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Jeffers to hit No. 11 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Massey Home Run Odds
Michael Massey is currently slashing .272/.303/.441 with 11 home runs in 348 plate appearances. He’s putting up a .170 ISO, which is a big bump from .069 from last year. On top of that, Massey is much better vs righties, registering a 138 wRC+ against them.
He’ll face one tonight in Jack Perkins, who has had a major issue with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.76 HR/9. This includes a 1.88 HR/9 vs. lefties. Considering that Massey has two home runs in his last four games, this feels like a good spot to take him.
We should also note that this is a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total. It’s going to be 87 degrees at Kauffman Stadium, which is hitter-friendly weather. Considering these circumstances, we’ll take Massey here, who you can get at longer than +600 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Cam Smith Home Run Odds
Cam Smith is currently slashing .223/.292/.395 with 16 home runs in 446 plate appearances. While this is an underwhelming slash line, you have to like the 11.5% barrel rate.
We’re starting to see Smith lock in at the plate, as he’s slashing .357/.386/.643 with three home runs in August. We’re getting him at longer than +500 odds at the time of this article, which is a nice price considering how he’s swinging the bat.
I also like the matchup vs George Klassen, who has a 6.60 xERA and a 1.23 HR/9 on the season. In a game with a nine-run total, let’s go with Smith here. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: REUTERS
