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The 2026 MLB season is fast approaching, so it’s about that time to lock in on the awards markets. It’s always fun to hit on a longshot to win each award, which will be my approach for this column.
We’re looking for strong value on a player who can give us a greater return on investment, since MLB futures bets tie up our bankroll for several months.
On this page, we’re going to provide a best bet for both the American League and National League for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year. So, without further ado, here are my picks for the 2026 MLB awards.
2026 MLB Awards Odds
In each section, we’ll provide the top odds and then one best bet with analysis. Also be sure to check out our 2026 MLB Win Total predictions and market analysis.
2026 AL MVP Odds
AL MVP Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson is one year removed from a 7.9 WAR season, which ranked third in the AL. That was a season where Henderson slashed .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs and 21 stolen bases. The Orioles shortstop was able to put up those terrific numbers as a 23-year-old, highlighting his high upside.
Picture this scenario: the Orioles win the AL East, which is the clear-cut best division in baseball. That would be a bit of a surprise, considering they’re viewed by consensus as the third or fourth-best team among the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. In this scenario, imagine Henderson having another season as he did back in 2024.
That would put Henderson firmly in play for AL MVP. Now, you may be thinking, what happened last season? That was a year where Henderson’s production was suppressed by an oblique injury. Now fully healthy, Henderson looks like a terrific value at four-digit odds.
2026 NL MVP Odds
NL MVP Best Bet: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is coming off back-to-back seasons where he was affected by injury: one where he tore his ACL and another where he was returning from this significant knee injury. But now, he’s fully healthy and ready to get back to top form.
Let’s remember that Acuña won the NL MVP back in 2023 when he put up video game numbers, slashing .337/.416/.596 with 41 homers and 73 steals, finishing with 9.2 WAR. Still only 28 years old, Acuña has as much upside as anyone in baseball.
If there’s anyone who can dethrone Shohei Ohtani, it’s Acuña. Let’s say that Acuña carries the Braves back to the playoffs, perhaps even winning the NL East. He’d have a legit chance at winning NL MVP in that scenario. At odds, the price looks solid.
2026 AL Cy Young Odds
AL Cy Young Best Bet: Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans dealt with injuries last season, which limited him to only 61.2 innings. While the surface stats looked underwhelming, including a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, the advanced metrics look fantastic. Ragans put up a 2.52 SIERA and 37.5% strikeout rate. For context, that was better than Tarik Skubal (2.71 SIERA, 32.2 K%).
Now, I’m certainly not saying that Ragans is better than Skubal. I’m just putting those stats into context, demonstrating why Ragans is such a nice value at odds.
If Ragans can stay healthy this year, you’re likely going to see a lot of volume in terms of innings pitched. The 28-year-old lefty went 186.1 innings back in 2024, so he’s definitely capable. That would put him in play for this award.
2026 NL Cy Young Odds
NL Cy Young Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani
There are two ways for Shohei Ohtani to be usurped from the throne of NL MVP. The first involves injury. The second scenario is where Ohtani is so dominant on the mound, pushing voters to pick him for NL Cy Young instead of NL MVP. In that case, perhaps they wouldn’t vote for Ohtani for both awards. After all, voter fatigue is a real thing.
Ohtani was great on the mound last year, putting up a 2.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 33.0% strikeout rate in 47 innings. A recent ESPN article highlighted how Ohtani has his eyes set on a Cy Young award.
That’s the one thing that he’s missing from his collection of MVP awards and World Series wins. At odds, I’m willing to sprinkle.
2026 AL Rookie of the Year Odds
AL Rookie of the Year Best Bet: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami has prodigious power, putting up one of the best seasons in NPB history. In his age-22 season back in 2022, Murakami hit 56 home runs with a 225 wRC+.
While the strikeout rate has been an issue in the last two seasons, this is a hitter with a good eye at the plate and the ability to hit 40+ home runs.
Playing for a rebuilding White Sox squad, Murakami will get all the playing time he can handle. There’s also an interesting wrinkle here: Murakami has a clause in his contract that states that he must approve being sent down to the minors. That provides some security on his playing time, which also helps for AL Rookie of the Year.
2026 NL Rookie of the Year Odds
NL Rookie of the Year Best Bet: Sal Stewart
All eyes are on Konner Griffin, who is a phenom for the Pirates, but I like the value on Sal Stewart. Playing in a bandbox that is among the most hitter-friendly environments in Great American Ball Park, Stewart will have a chance to put up impressive numbers.
This is a 22-year-old who put up a 152 wRC+ across all minor league levels last season. He also homered five times in only 58 plate appearances in a brief stint with the Reds at the end of the year.
Stewart has the ability to hit 25+ home runs and steal 10+ bases with a strong batting average, as he kept his strikeout rate below 16% in the minors last year. Don’t worry about his playing time, as his bat is polished enough to force his way into everyday playing time.
2026 AL Manager of the Year Odds
- Dan Wilson – Seattle Mariners (+600)
- Stephen Vogt – Cleveland Guardians (+650)
- John Schneider – Toronto Blue Jays (+650)
- Alex Cora – Boston Red Sox (+700)
- Craig Albernaz – Baltimore Orioles (+700)
- AJ Hinch – Detroit Tigers (+700)
- Skip Schumaker – Texas Rangers (+1300)
- Mark Kotsay – Athletics (+1300)
- Kevin Cash – Tampa Bay Rays (+1400)
- Matt Quatraro – Kansas City Royals (+2200)
AL Manager of the Year Best Bet: Craig Albernaz (+700)
I’m going with Craig Albernaz to win AL Manager of the Year because it’s his first year, so if he can guide the Orioles back to the top of the AL East, he’d be firmly in play.
The O’s have a much-improved roster, bringing in Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, and Ryan Helsley. Everything went wrong for them last year. They completely underachieved. With these improvements alongside positive regression, Baltimore is dangerous.
If they’re able to win the toughest division in MLB, Albernaz could take home this award.
NL Manager of the Year
- Pat Murphy – Milwaukee Brewers (+600)
- Craig Counsell – Chicago Cubs (+600)
- Walt Weiss – Atlanta Braves (+700)
- Don Kelly – Pittsburgh Pirates (+1000)
- Terry Francona – Cincinnati Reds (+1000)
- Craig Stammen – San Diego Padres (+1000)
- Clayton McCullough – Miami Marlins (+1000)
- Dave Roberts – Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200)
- Tony Vitello – San Francisco Giants (+1400)
- Carlos Mendoza – New York Mets (+1400)
NL Manager of the Year Best Bet: Don Kelly (+1000)
Don Kelly took over as Pirates manager on May 8th last year. He looks like a great longshot bet to win NL Manager of the Year because the Pirates look poised to take a leap this season.
Not only did they bring in Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn, but they’re also getting full years from Konnor Griffin (best prospect in MLB) and Bubba Chandler (one of the best pitching prospects).
Add in perennial Cy Young candidate Paul Skenes, and you have the makings of a highly talented team. I have them as my surprise pick to make the playoffs. If that happens, Kelly could absolutely win this award.
