2026 MLB Win Totals: Five Futures Bets To Consider
It’s almost time for the 2026 MLB season, so lets take a look at baseball betting odds focusing on win totals to try to find value.
Even though MLB futures bets are more appealing in awards or World Series markets because they have a larger return on investment, you can still find mis-priced lines for win totals. It’s unwise to tie up portions of any bankroll for the entire season, unless you’re getting at least +200 odds, but we’re going to make an exception here because there are great bets on the board.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at five teams to target for MLB win totals for the 2026 season.
2026 MLB Win Total Best Bets
Baltimore Orioles Over
The Orioles are coming off a disappointing season where everything seemed to go wrong, resulting in a 75-87 record. But this is clearly a team that underachieved, as they won 91 games in 2024 and had 101 wins in 2023. Fresh off a strong offseason, the O’s look poised to get back on track, even in a tough division.
Baltimore brought in Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, two sluggers who hit 35+ home runs last season. They’re also getting a full season of top prospect Samuel Basallo, who has elite power for a catcher. Then, you have to consider that Gunnar Henderson had a down year due to a slow start from an oblique injury, so he’s likely to bounce back. Simply put, this is going to be a dangerous offense.
The pitching should be improved as well, since Kyle Bradish is fully healthy. The 29-year-old righty is a dark horse for AL Cy Young, putting up some impressive numbers in a small sample last year, including a 37.3% strikeout rate in 32 innings. They also added Shane Baz, who has always had a high upside. Ryan Helsley is one year removed from a 49-save season, giving them a legit closer as well. Considering these improvements, we could see the Orioles soar over this number.
Kansas City Royals Over
The Royals won 82 games last year, so they’ve already eclipsed this number in the most recent sample we have. However, that was a season where Cole Ragans was limited to only 61.2 innings, putting up impressive advanced metrics, including a 2.52 SIERA. If Ragans can stay healthy, he can be a contender for AL Cy Young, solidifying the top of this rotation.
Add in the fact that Kris Bubic, one of the biggest breakouts of the 2025 season, is now healthy after being limited to only 116.1 innings, and you can see why you’re likely to see improvement in this rotation. While the bullpen is a bit questionable, especially with Carlos Estevez showing diminished velocity in spring training after consistently over-performing his advanced metrics, you’re likely going to see significant gains on offense.
This team will be getting full seasons out of two of their top prospects, Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen. Both of these hitters can barrel the ball at high rates, providing a power boost to a group that already includes studs like Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia. The team moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium, which should also boost home runs. With an offense that has a lot more thump, the Royals are my pick to win the AL Central.
Pittsburgh Pirates Over
The Pirates have been perennial bottom-feeders in recent years, including 71 wins last year, but there’s light at the end of this tunnel. Pittsburgh looks poised to be one of the most improved teams this season. For one, they had a good offseason, adding power to their lineup with Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna.
But most importantly, they’ll be adding the best prospect in baseball to their lineup this year, shortstop Konner Griffin. This is a player who has drawn comparisons to Mike Trout. He’s considered to be head-and-shoulders above every other prospect in MLB. To put things in perspective, Griffin put up a 165 wRC+ across all minor league levels as a 19-year-old last year.
The rotation is impressive as well, with ace Paul Skenes joined by innings-eater Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft, who has some upside. They’re also getting a full season of Bubba Chandler, who is considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Oh yeah, Jared Jones is on the mend, set to come back by June, remember him? Just another flame-thrower to add to this group. Considering these circumstances, the Pirates look like an emerging threat in the NL Central, but all we need is a 79-83 finish, which is a low bar.
Seattle Mariners Under 89.5 Wins (+100)
The Mariners are widely considered to be one of the best teams in the American League, so taking the under here may surprise you. I agree that this is a stacked team on paper in each facet: lineup, rotation, and bullpen. However, I’m going with the under in what I view as a high bar at 89.5 wins.
The reason for this is their lack of pitching depth, which is problematic considering their starters have major injury risks. When healthy, this is one of the best rotations in baseball. However, Logan Gilbert (forearm), Bryan Woo (elbow), George Kirby (shoulder), and Bryce Miller (elbow) have each had issues in the worst possible spots for pitchers. What happens if one or two of these starters miss extended time? That would force Emerson Hancock into the rotation, demonstrating how there’s a lack of reinforcements here.
You may scoff at that thought, but look around the league. It’s very rare for a team to go an entire season without using at least seven starters. When you add in the injury concerns in the Mariners’ rotation, it feels like they’re more likely than others to go through a rough patch like that. It’s also worth noting that they only went over this number by one game last year, finishing with a 90-72 record.
Tampa Bay Rays Over
The Rays went 77-85 last year, so they were already very close to going over this number, yet we’re getting it at plus money. What I love about this pick is that the Rays are going back to Tropicana Field this season. Last year, they were forced to play in a minor league bandbox in George M. Steinbrenner Field. This roster is built on pitching, so playing in such a hitter-friendly environment was bad for them.
The strength of this group will continue to be their pitching, with a strong group led by Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. Former ace Shane McClanahan is ready to return, while veteran additions like Nick Martinez and Steven Matz could find another level within an organization that is good at developing pitchers. I also love that they’ll have Griffin Jax for a full year, as he’s a dominant high-leverage reliever when he’s on.
While yes, the AL East is a tough division and the Rays are the worst of the bunch on paper, that doesn’t mean they’ll be pushovers. With that in mind, we’ll take them to eclipse this low bar. Don’t underestimate the impact of playing in an environment where they’re more comfortable in Tropicana Field.
