2026 Valero Texas Open Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC San Antonio
Another week of PGA Tour action brings us to TPC San Antonio with the 2026 Valero Texas Open. Compare Valero Texas Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and Collin Morikawa are the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Just one week stands between golf fans and the Masters. Players get a final opportunity to qualify or tune up their form for the year’s first major. That spurred a wide list of talented PGA Tour players to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 2026 Valero Texas Open. This year’s event includes plenty of star power in the Lone Star State and is a great precursor to the Masters.
In short, TPC San Antonio serves as a second-shot course for those not erratic off the tee. It rewards top-tier iron players in trending tee-to-green form. Here’s a complete look at everything to expect from Valero Texas Open odds.
2026 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Find the top five favorites for the 2026 Valero Texas Open here when the odds open. Compare odds across sportsbooks for the entire field at the bottom of this post.
Masters odds are also available to bet on now. This week is often a good opportunity to jump on Masters futures for potential late qualifiers, such as Rickie Fowler.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE
A shakeup to the Texas swing, by way of removing match play in Austin, has brought on a few surprises. Most notably, the strength of the field has elevated for this non-signature event at the 2026 Valero Texas Open. In the final week of prep before the Masters, many of the Tour’s best are looking to stay sharp with one last competitive tournament.
The Valero Texas Open field features nine OWGR top-20 players, headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, and Robert MacIntyre. Morikawa is of particular interest to watch this week, as he’s set to make his first start since withdrawing from THE PLAYERS. The status of his health may have a significant impact on Masters odds in the week to follow.
The “lookahead” narrative may be overblown here, as known Augusta-obsessive Jordan Spieth was not deterred from taking this event down in 2021. Rory McIlroy has not shied away from saying in the past that he has used the Valero Texas Open as a final tune-up to practice shots he’ll need to channel in the following week at Augusta. I don’t see that being much of a reason to fade the top players in this week’s event, however, as each could use the confidence boost that comes with winning a Tour event leading up to golf’s first major. As Brooks Koepka said to the media at last week’s Houston Open, it’s invaluable to simulate the pressure of contending on Sunday just before you head to Augusta.
In addition to the favorites, Sepp Straka, J.J. Spaun, Maverick McNealy, Daniel Berger, and Rickie Fowler are on the list of top contenders to watch for this week.
Brian Harman returns to defend his title after a surprisingly comfortable win last year. In addition to Harman, the list of past champions returning includes J.J. Spaun, Jordan Spieth, Charley Hoffman, and Jimmy Walker. Akshay Bhatia has expectedly played his last round prior to the Masters at the India Open, and will not be in San Antonio to repeat his 2024 playoff victory.
INTRODUCTION TO THE OAKS COURSE AT TPC SAN ANTONIO
The Valero Texas Open found a home on the schedule as the final event before the Masters. That, in turn, created a dichotomy between elite players looking for a final tune-up and fringe players looking for a shot at making the first major of the year. The fringe players in this week’s field who are not currently qualified for The Masters include Rickie Fowler, Sahith Theegala, Pierceson Coody, Billy Horschel, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Michael Thorbjornsen, andRyo Hisatsune.
Greg Norman designed the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and brought on Sergio Garcia in a consulting role. Garcia’s involvement was presumably to attract the game’s best in lieu of skipping for Masters prep. Ironically, Garcia only played once before departing for LIV, missing the cut in 2018. This will be the 16th time the Oaks Course hosts the Valero Texas Open since slotting in for La Cantera Golf Club in 2010.
This is my least favorite course on the PGA Tour. TPC San Antonio is a ho-hum, nondescript assortment of holes. It lacks a unique identity or defining characteristics. As a 7,438-yard par 72, it features the standard breakout of 10 par 4s, four par 5s, and four par 3s. It ranks in the top 10 longest courses on the tour each year and features some of the least penal rough around fairways and greens. As advertised, the Oaks Course features a heavy tree lining but relies on the wind and firm conditions as its best defense.
The elements determined scoring at TPC San Antonio over the years. Some years saw soft, receptive conditions from heavy rainfall (2019), while others were impacted by high winds (2022, 2025). San Antonio experienced an uncharacteristically hot February and March this year. So, we should expect very similar conditions as last year, where Brian Harman’s winning mark of just -9 was the lowest since 2014.
COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
Players who found the most consistent success at the Valero Texas Open tend to fit the mold of accurate ball-strikers with a reliable short game and familiarity with Texas winds. In firm conditions, wayward drives are prone to land among the trees. Driving accuracy has proven more important than distance, despite what the scorecard yardage may suggest.
Looking at recent course history, 10 players have multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Jordan Spieth, Alex Noren, SH Kim, Matt Kuchar, Andrew Novak, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, and Brendon Todd.
Nine players made the cut in each appearance over the last five years (min. three starts): Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Brandt Snedeker, Beau Hossler, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Streelman, Lucas Glover, and Brendon Todd.
Charley Hoffman
Some call the Valero Texas Open the Charley Hoffman Open. Over the last nine years, Hoffman has a win and two runner-up finishes. Hoffman has played this event every year since 2006. 2022 marked his first career MC, with over 16 career starts. However, he bounced back with a T22 in 2023. With a streak of seven straight missed cuts leading into this week, expectations will be more moderate for the Valero course horse.
The rest of the top 10 in terms of SG: TOT at the Valero Texas Open after Hoffman are Jordan Spieth, Denny McCarthy, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, Thorbjorn Olesen, Keith Mitchell, Brandt Snedeker, and Lucas Glover. It’s interesting to note that the variety of players with below-average distance are the ones who’ve found success on this long setup. Still, this list highlights a consistent trend of solid ball-strikers capable of elevating their baselines in windy conditions.
Course Comps
I struggle to find a perfect comp course for TPC San Antonio, which only adds to why I fail to get excited about this event. Given the combination of wind exposure, length hidden in long par 5s, and a relatively lackluster strength of field year-over-year, I like Corales Golf Course quite a bit as far as comp courses go.
Silverado Resort & Spa, host of the Fortinet Championship, is another interesting comp course. Despite tight fairways, it shares length, tree-lined hazards, and lack of penal rough. Detroit Golf Club, PGA National, and TPC Twin Cities require a similar driver-heavy game plan emphasizing approach play across a mix of risk/reward holes.
With unique aspects of firm conditions and gusting winds, I’m looking across all other Texas venues on tour for reference. I’m looking at last week’s venue, Memorial Park, but I am also including TPC Craig Ranch, Colonial CC, and GC of Houston.
The top 10 players SG: TOT across these comp courses are Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Alex Noren, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Kirk, J.J. Spaun, and Stephan Jaeger.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2026 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS
- SG: APP
- Good Drives Gained / Fairways Gained
- SG: ARG / Sand Saves Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par-5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (L36, slow greens)
- SG: TOT (High Winds)
- Course & Comp Course History
Strokes Gained numbers would suggest that TPC San Antonio is a bona fide second-shot course. It could serve as an Approach and Around-The-Green contest if players avoid taking themselves out of position on tee shots. With that in mind, I’m leaning more heavily on Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance over SG: OTT to weed out the erratic drivers. Nine players rank in the top 40 in all four categories of SG: APP, SG: ARG, Fairways Gained, and Bogey Avoidance: Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Ludvig Aberg, Ryo Hisatsune, Chris Kirk, Lucas Glover, and Mac Meissner.
Approach
Approach play is important every week, but precise irons gain even more importance at TPC San Antonio. With a balanced distribution of approach shots at this event, I’m bypassing any specific proximity ranges in my modeling and instead placing a heavier emphasis on SG: APP. The top 10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Collin Morikawa, Austin Smotherman, Si Woo Kim, Nicolai Hojgaard, Daniel Berger, Chris Kirk, Austin Eckroat, Tommy Fleetwood, J.J. Spaun, and Russell Henley.
Short Game
We must factor in short-game stats with players hitting greens in regulation well below tour average. Seven players rank inside the top 40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, and Sand Saves Gained: Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy, Nick Taylor, Alex Noren, and Andrew Putnam.
The ideal player for this week should excel in Comp Course History, Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and Bogey Avoidance. Just 10 players in this week’s field rate out above average in each of those categories: Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Alex Noren, Bud Cauley, Andrew Putnam, and Chris Kirk.
Correlation And TPC San Antonio
This week’s correlation charts show a notable dip in the importance of Par-4: 450-500 and Par-3 Scoring relative to the tour average. Instead, SG: APP, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Good Drives Gained make the greatest jumps. Driving Distance, Prox 200+, and 3-Putt Avoidance are among the least correlated stats with success.
Eight players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Rickie Fowler, Davis Thompson, and Maverick McNealy.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: ROBERT MACINTYRE
Is TPC San Antonio a lefty specialist’s course? A Robert Macintyre win would make it three straight for the southpaws to follow in the footsteps of Brian Harman and Akshay Bhatia. Beyond the surface level of their handedness, there is a deeper trend that persists with the yearly Valero Texas Open contenders: They’re great in the wind.
Brian Harman conquered the elements to win the 2023 Open Championship. Akshay Bhatia withstood a gusty weekend at Bay Hill for his most recent win. Jordan Spieth – a regular contender at this event – is a mainstay in Open Championships as well. When you think of a modern-day links player best equipped to handle windy conditions, Robert MacIntyre is atop that list.
Coming off a 4th place finish in his most recent start at THE PLAYERS, MacIntyre has climbed up to No. 11 in the OWGR, 4th best in this field. He’s been the best putter on TOUR this season, while also ranking above-Tour-average in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: ARG. That sets the bar for a high floor, as MacIntyre has made the cut in 10 straight events with six top-10s over that stretch.
Ranking 4th in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, Big Shot Bob continues to go overlooked as one of the PGA TOUR’s star players. He’ll look to tune up for Augusta with an exclamation point, finishing T35 in his only other Valero Texas Open start.
2026 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2026 Valero Texas Open odds. I’ve broken the list by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing to be released later this week.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: T2G (L12), SG: ARG, and Fairways Gained, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: OTT, SG: P (L36), Bogey Avoidance, and SG: TOT (High Winds), and Par-5 Scoring.
Model Favorites
On a course that has crowned ball-striking marksman Corey Conners twice over the last four years, I’m not surprised to see Tommy Fleetwood jump to the No. 1 spot in my model this week. In his last start, Fleetwood was a tee-to-green machine at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T8. The recent TGL champion has finished T7 and T62 over his first two Valero Texas Open appearances.
After Fleetwood, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, Alex Noren, Sepp Straka, Maverick McNealy, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama.
When Valero Texas Open odds are released on Monday, I’ll look to build a balanced card with exposure to top-tier favorites and some longshot fliers. Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, and Nick Taylor all stand out as potential value bets, depending on where the odds ultimately open on Monday. Check back in later this week for more updates.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2026 Valero Texas Open bets!
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Photo Credit: AP/Godofredo A. Vásquez
