The Atlanta Falcons currently have odds to win Super Bowl 58. By winning their opening game of the 2023 season, the Falcons got above .500 in the regular season for the first time since December 2017. After a gutsy win over the Houston Texans to move to 3-2, there’s been plenty of optimism that the franchise is moving in the right direction, and now the Dirty Birds are in a great position after a big Saints loss on Thursday Night Football, and a tight win for Atlanta over the Bucs over the weekend. Last season, they took a step up in many ways, which is reflected in their Super Bowl odds, but still missed out on the playoffs with a 7-10 record. The offense has some promising pieces, but the defense was a serious problem, and an offseason emphasis in that area is already showing; they have an above-average defensive EPA so far this season. Even after the win over the Texans, it’s clear that there is a real problem with quarterback Desmond Ridder, but head coach Arthur Smith finally made the switch to Taylor Heinicke during this weekend’s game against the Tennessee Titans. It wasn’t enough to win the game, but the offense looked better after the change, and they were relatively efficient again in the next game against the Vikings, but the Falcons lost again. We’ll have to keep a close eye on how Smith handles the position and the offense overall going forward.
Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds & Futures 2023-24
|Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds & Futures||Odds (Updated December 2023)|
|Super Bowl 57 Odds|
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Those hopes of making this a short term rebuild are starting to ramp up as the Falcons were very active this past offseason. They recognized they had one of the worst secondaries in the league and have been active in improving that area. They traded their fifth-round pick for the Lions Jeff Okudah, giving them depth at the position that also features A.J Terrell and Casey Hayward. The Falcons also brought in former Bengals safety Jessie Bates, who has been absolutely fantastic throughout his first few games as a Falcon
Should they continue to turn around their weak points to at least average, then the Falcons have a real shot at making the playoffs, even in a surprisingly challenging AFC South. That makes their Super Bowl odds intriguing, giving you a large number to play around with should they make the playoffs. The Bucs, Panthers, and Saints are all in the middle of rebuilds as well with plenty of holes that need to be plugged before being true contenders, leaving the Falcons in the thick of a tight division race.
Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds Analysis
Even with the additions on defense, the Falcons playoff hopes will only go as far as their young quarterback Desmond Ridder can take them. Drafted down the board last year, the Falcons have given him the reins as the new team leader under center. The Marcus Mariota experiment failed, rushing Ridder’s development in an effort to make them competitive. So far, the returns have not been great, as Ridder has been mediocre at absolute best, and visibly hampered the Falcons offense despite having weapons like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson at his disposal.
In order to add some extra security to combat against the question marks around Ridder, the Falcons made a wise decision in bringing in backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke was thrusted into a starting role last year for the Commanders when Carson Wentz got hurt, showing he can lead a team to at least be competitive when on offense. He won’t wow you in any way, but he also won’t completely take you out of a game either; we’ll see if Ridder gets another chance, or if this is now Heinicke’s team going forward.
As Heinicke settles into the starting job in Atlanta, he will have plenty of weapons to work with as the Falcons have been active in adding production to their receiving room. They added big man Mack Hollins to play in a stretch receiver role as a down field threat as well as Scotty Miller to burn linebackers as a speedy slot receiver. With London and Pitts in the lineup as well, Ridder should have no issue in spreading the ball around to his capable playmakers. However, that hasn’t always been the case, as he had perhaps his worst game yet in London as he was intercepted twice and failed to crack 200 yards, and while he bounced back nicely with an unusually-prolific game against the Texans, he threw three crushing interceptions against the Commanders and couldn’t stop fumbling against Tampa Bay.
The additions on offense didn’t stop there as the Falcons made a splash in the draft by selecting star Texas running back Bijan Robinson with their eighth overall pick. Bijan was widely regarded a first rounder as he comes in as one of the best prospects for his position since Saquon Barkley. Robinson will take on a heavy usage right away as the current favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, immediately boosting the Falcons backfield production with his dual threat abilities. He had a solid debut against the Panthers, rushing for 56 yards on 10 carries, plus catching 6 passes for 27 yards and a touchdown, and then added 172 scrimmage yards against the Packers. The Falcons weren’t able to leverage him very much against Detroit, but he did run for over 100 yards against Jacksonville and scored against Houston, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his usage and progress going forward, especially after some shockingly low usage against Tampa.
The issue is that it’s hard to justify taking a running back that early in the draft, especially when the Falcons have immediate pressing needs elsewhere on the roster. They ranked dead last in generating a pass rush, looking to field more of the same as they have failed to address that area of the defense by not adding any playmakers this offseason. Still, the division is as weak as it’s ever been, and the Falcons make for an interesting flier if their offense can get up to speed.
Reasons Why Falcons Can & Can’t Win Super Bowl 58
- Revamped secondary after finishing near dead last in Def Pass DVOA
- Plenty of productive pass catching options with the additions of Miller and Hollins
- Bijan Robinson can be a game changer in the backfield
- Still a weak pass rushing unit
- No productive depth at receiver after their starting options
- Heinicke is at best a minor upgrade from Ridder
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