Should You Bet on the Golden State Warriors to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Arguably the most successful franchise in the NBA over the past decade or so, the Golden State Warriors could be approaching the end of an era.
The veteran-laden team has crept into the NBA Play-in Tournament as the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference and will be without Jimmy Butler (ACL) while Steph Curry (knee) is playing on a minutes limit.
To make the playoffs, the Warriors will have to win at the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night, then win at the Phoenix Suns or Portland Trailblazers to secure the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and the right to face the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round.
Will the Warriors pull off consecutive road wins and make the playoffs? And if they do, will Steve Kerr, Draymond Green, and Curry provide one more incredible performance by taking down the Thunder? We break down their chances below.
Golden State Warriors to Win Western Conference?
Since losing Curry to a knee injury in late January, the Warriors have been in free fall. They went 10-22 in February, March, and April, even dropping three of their last four games with Curry active at the end of the season.
Curry didn’t top 30 minutes in any of those appearances and will reportedly be capped at 32 minutes in a do-or-die spot at the Clippers this Wednesday, indicating the Warriors don’t have a ton of interest in moving onto the playoffs as a franchise.
The fact that they’ve lost all three meetings to the Thunder by double digits and have sat key players ahead of those losses indicates they don’t believe they have a chance to win a playoff series.
Oddsmakers are giving the Warriors +350 odds to make the playoffs and +2500 odds to win a first-round series. Those are the longest odds in the conference for good reason.
Best Odds: Golden State Warriors to win Western Conference
Golden State Warriors to Win NBA Finals?
Playoff projections at basketball-reference.com and at the ESPN Power Index don’t even give the Warriors a chance to win the West this year. Other teams have at least a 0.1% probability if everything breaks right, but those projections are indicating that the Dubs have no chance to beat the Thunder even though they have a 22.2% chance to navigate the Play-in and make the first round.
It’s hard to back a team to beat the NBA title favorites if their own front office and medical staff doesn’t want to clear their best player for full minutes in the Play-in tournament.
The Warriors will be in the mix for acquiring young talent this offseason and will hope to get Jimmy Butler back at full strength, or move the veteran for future assets. This simply isn’t the year for the Dubs to make a push and they’re not worth a bet at +25000 to win the West.
Best Odds: Golden State Warriors to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Scott Marshall
