Should You Bet on the Phoenix Suns to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
From a high-priced roster that fell well below expectations, to one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season, the Phoenix Suns have been a fun team to monitor.
New coach Jordan Ott has this team routinely exceeding expectations with the best record (47-35) among Western Conference teams against the spread. Adding the ultra competitive Dillon Brooks has bolstered their defense tremendously and guys like Collin Gillespie, Grayson Allen, and Oso Ighodaro have gone from unknowns to excellent role players.
Phoenix enters the NBA Play-in Tournament as the No. 7 seed with a home game on tap against the No. 8 Portland Trailblazers. A win would secure a first-round series against the terrifying San Antonio Spurs, while a loss would set up a one-game showdown with the Los Angeles Clippers or Golden State Warriors for the No. 8 seed and a matchup against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
On the heels of a great regular season, do the Suns offer some value as a playoff underdog?
Phoenix Suns to Win Western Conference?
The Suns have a big advantage in the Play-in Tournament as the No. 7 seed with two home games on tap (if necessary) to make the playoffs. They’re implied -600 to make the NBA Playoffs since every No. 7 seed in five years has managed to hold serve since the Play-in Tournament began.
If they secure the No. 7 seed, the Suns would have a much better chance of upsetting the Spurs than they would as the No. 8 seed against the Thunder. The Suns beat the Spurs twice in November and lost, 101-100, on a buzzer beater from Victor Wembanyama in the last meeting between the teams March 19.
It’s notable that Phoenix nearly beat San Antonio without Dillon Brooks, who is not only a massive part of the Suns offense, but also a uniquely tough defender capable of switching onto Wembanyama and giving him problems. The Suns coaching staff did a great job baffling Wemby in those November meetings and rookie coach Mitch Johnson might not be great in his first playoff action.
The Suns are getting a 6.3% chance to make the Western Conference Semifinals per ESPN’s Power Index. Their odds are around 10/1 to win a first-round series over the Spurs or Thunder. While they could give those titans some trouble and perhaps push those series to 5 or 6 games, the Suns are unlikely to knock either team out and would therefore offer more value against the spread on a game-to-game basis.
Best Odds: Phoenix Suns to win Western Conference
Phoenix Suns to Win NBA Finals?
The Suns are a great regular season story and they should continue to improve next year with a culture reset under Jordan Ott. Backing them to win the Western Conference this year would be a waste of money.
Playoff projections at basketball-reference.com give the Suns a 0.5% chance to win the West and ESPN is even lower at 0.1% for Phoenix.
This team doesn’t have the firepower to win three series in the tougher NBA conference. Specifically, they don’t have the size to deal with Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, or the other talented bigs they might encounter. The Suns have been pummeled in the paint for most of the season and new center Mark Williams has dealt with durability issues during an uninspiring campaign.
There is no reason to back the Suns to win the West, even at massive +25000 odds.
Best Odds: Phoenix Suns to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Brandon Dill
