Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens 2026 NHL Playoffs Series Preview, Picks, Odds

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 17, 2026, 10:39am

When at full health, the Tampa Bay Lightning are arguably one of the best teams in the league, rivaling the Colorado Avalanche at the top of the oddsboard for the Stanley Cup. Speaking of oddsboards, Nikita Kucherov has built a strong case for winning the Hart Memorial Trophy, jockeying with the likes of Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon for the award.

With the regular season in the rear view mirror, the Lightning now turn their sights towards the playoffs, drawing the Montreal Canadiens in the first round. With the Canadiens back line incapable of slowing down the Lightning’s high powered offense, they will struggle to keep pace on the scoreboard, resulting in a lopsided series.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Betting Analysis

Even though the Lightning fell just short in their efforts of winning the Atlantic, they are still arguably the best team in the East, rivaling the Carolina Hurricanes at the top of the oddsboard for the Eastern Conference Championship. Their high level of play on both sides of the ice have helped turn them into a well rounded contender, ranking in the top-10 in Expected Goals For and in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

With their back line smothering opposing shot attempts, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been able to thrive, averaging just 2.31 Goals Against per game. With Vasilevskiy consistently walling off Shots on Goal, his individual production helps the Lightning avoid playing in highly volatile contests, increasing their chances of winning.

The betting favorite for the Vezina Trophy will be tested by the Montreal Canadiens, facing off against a front line who resides near the top of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Cole Caufield has played a major role in the Canadiens success this season, averaging 0.42 Expected Goals and 3.19 Shots on Goal per game.

Even if the Canadiens are able to break through the Lightning’s back line, their lack of individual production will make it tough for them to keep it close, fielding a defense who ranks in the bottom ten in Expected Goals Against. When pressured, Jakub Dobes has struggled to hold his ground, averaging nearly three Goals Against per game.

With their defense incapable of bottling up the Lightning, the Canadiens will find themselves too deep into a hole for them to climb out of. While I debated betting the Lightning to sweep the Canadiens, I will avoid the possibility of getting burned by one loss on the round, electing to take them to cover the series spread at -1.5 with a smaller wager at -2.5.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Prediction, Pick & Best Bet

Lightning to cover the -1.5 series spread is the series best bet.

Best Bet: Lightning series spread -1.5 (-120)
Series Prediction: Lightning 4-1 (+350)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Schedule

Sun., Apr. 19 – Montreal at Tampa Bay, Game 1 – 5:45 p.m./TNT
Tue., Apr. 21 – Montreal at Tampa Bay, Game 2 – 7:00 p.m./ESPN2
Fri., Apr. 24 – Tampa Bay at Montreal, Game 3 – 7:00 p.m./TNT
Sun., Apr. 26 – Tampa Bay at Montreal, Game 4 – 7:00 p.m./ESPN
Wed., Apr. 29 – Montreal at Tampa Bay, Game 5 if nec. – TBD
Fri., May 1 – Tampa Bay at Montreal, Game 6 if nec. – TBD
Sun., May 3 – Montreal at Tampa Bay, Game 7 if nec. – TBD

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Odds

Series Winner

Lightning (-250)
Canadiens (+205)

Series Spread

Lightning +1.5 (-450)
Lightning -1.5 (-115)
Lightning +2.5 (-1400)
Lightning -2.5 (+180)
Canadiens +1.5 (-105)
Canadiens -1.5 (+350)
Canadiens +2.5 (-220)
Canadiens -2.5 (+800)

Total Games

4 Games (+500)
5 Games (+250)
6 Games (+220)
7 Games (+235)

Series Score

Lightning 4-0 (+650)
Lightning 4-1 (+350)
Lightning 4-2 (+400)
Lightning 4-3 (+425)
Canadiens 4-0 (+3000)
Canadiens 4-1 (+1300)
Canadiens 4-2 (+750)
Canadiens 4-3 (+750)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Betting Resources

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Players to Watch

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov – Season Stats: 44 goals, 86 assists, +43
Jake Guentzel – Season Stats: 38 goals, 50 assists, +13
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Season Stats: 39-15-4, 2.31 GAA, .912 SV%

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield – Season Stats: 51 goals, 37 assists, +29
Nick Suzuki – Season Stats: 29 goals, 72 assists, +37
Jakub Dobes – Season Stats: 29-10-4, 2.78 AGG, .901 SV%

Photo Credit: AP/Jason Behnken

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.