Keenan Allen Fantasy Outlook & Value 2020

For the past three seasons, Keenan Allen excelled with Phillip Rivers as his signal-caller. During that period, Allen was a great deep-threat and contested-catch WR, who was provided with an abundance of targets and receptions. However, after the Chargers’ busy off-season, the team will transition towards Tyrod Taylor. This QB change will have severe repercussions on Allen’s fantasy projections and create some caution against adding him to your roster next season.

2019 Recap

Player	Team	Salary/Bonuses	Endorsements	Total Earnings
Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks	$70M	$9M	$79M
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	$45M	$1M	$46M
Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	$23M	$16M	$39M
Tom Brady	New England Patriots	$23M	$12M	$35M
Nick Foles	Jacksonville Jaguars	$30.8M	$2M	$32.8M
DeMarcus Lawrence	Dallas Cowboys	$31.1M	$150,000	$31.3M
Kirk Cousins	Minnesota Vikings	$28M	$1.8M	$29.8M
Trey Flowers	Detroit Lions	$28.9M	$250,000	$29.1M
Brandin Cooks	Los Angeles Rams	$27.5M	$500,000	$28M
Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons	$21.5M	$5M	$26.5M

Last season, Keen Allen continued his recent fantasy success. He finished with 104 receptions on 149 targets for 1,199 yards and six TDs. As a result, Allen generated 261.5 fantasy points with an average of 16.3 points/game for the second year in a row. Given his continued consistency since 2017, it’s evident that Allen has been the most reliable member of the Chargers’ receiving corps.

2020 Projections

Player	Team	Salary	Endorsements	Total Earnings
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	$36M	$3M	$39M
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	$30M	$6.5M	$36.5M
David Price	Los Angeles Dodgers	$31M	$950,000	$32M
Clayton Kershaw	Los Angeles Dodgers	$31M	$750,000	$31.8M
Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	$30M	$500,000	$30.5M
Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	$30M	$500,000	$30.5M
Yoenis Cespedes	New York Mets	$29M	$400,000	$29.4M
Justin Verlander	Houston Astros	$28M	$1M	$29M
Albert Pujols	Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	$28M	$800,000	$28.8M
Giancarlo Stanton	New York Yankees	$26M	$2M	$28M

In 2020, Allen likely won’t have a record-breaking season of any sort. Allen is not even likely to witness an increase in receiving yards since he will have a more conservative QB next season. However, Keenan ranked in the top seven for target-share for the past three seasons. Therefore, he will probably remain a central receiver who hogs most of the Chargers’ catches and targets in 2020. In fact, his plentiful target share and reception numbers will be his best attributes in fantasy. As a result, he is extremely more valuable in PPR leagues than standard ones.

Most games with 100+ receiving yards since 2017

Julio Jones – 20
DeAndre Hopkins – 17
Michael Thomas – 16
Adam Thielen – 14
Antonio Brown – 13
Keenan Allen – 12
Mike Evans – 12
Tyreek Hill – 12
JuJu Smith-Schuster – 12
Davante Adams – 11
Travis Kelce – 11

— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) April 10, 2020

ADP/Auction Value

ADP: 2.11
Auction Value: $34
Currently, Keenan Allen’s fantasy value seems fair. While Allen’s current draft position is a bit too high, his auction price makes sense in relation to other WR’s status. Given the Chargers’ offense’s modifications, a third/fourth-round pick might be wiser for Allen because he is not going to be an elite fantasy player. However, he is worth taking before the latter half of the fourth round because of his presence in LA’s receiving corps.
Fantasy owners might get a better deal for Allen in auction leagues. At this point, his auction price is slightly lower than receivers like Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay. While both those players are better investments than Allen, he is still worth selecting if you miss out on other tier 2 or 3 WRs. Although players like Odell Beckham, Adam Theilen could be better options for fantasy managers.

Floor

Keenan Allen’s floor will be slated as a low-end tier-three WR when the 2020 season begins. Right now, he is in the midst of a crowded receiving corps that includes Mike Williams and Hunter Henry. Consequently, it was already a fight for Allen to muscle his way atop the Chargers’ target share. Although even if he maintains the same target share, he will likely have less receiving yards if the Chargers decide to run the ball more. If the Chargers adopt a scheme similar to Baltimore’s, its unlikely that any of their receivers will reach tier two status or higher in fantasy.

Ceiling

It would be challenging to envision Keenan Allen performing as a tier-one WR. Even though he is one of the best route runners in the NFL, and specializes at gaining separation, he was just a solid tier two receiver in 2019. In fact, Allen has not performed as an elite tier one wideout since 2017, and he would need to record a 33%+ target-share to return to that status next season. More realistically, Allen’s best-case scenario would be a return to roughly the same fantasy output from the past two seasons.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense

After 16 seasons with Phillip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor is next in line to be the Chargers signal-caller for 2020. During a press conference late February, Lynn noted that football is moving towards a guy who can win within the pocket, but also extend plays with his legs. This comment perfectly describes Tyrod Taylor’s upside as a passer because he keeps the ball out harm’s way when he’s in the pocket. Plus, he also excels as a dual-threat QB who can pick up yardage on the ground and throw accurately on the run.
Tyrod Taylor’s nature as a conservative QB who likes to check the ball to RBs will likely hinder Allen’s fantasy production in 2020. According to PFF analyst, Steve Palazzolo, Taylor had the eighth-highest percentage of check-downs over the past two seasons. This indicates that Allen will have to maximize getting YAC on short passes to retain his fantasy success. Although this is unlikely considering that only 31% of Allen’s yardage came after the catch in 2019.

Strength of Schedule

From a divisional standpoint, Keenan Allen will probably struggle against his rivals. Last season both the Broncos and Chiefs had solid secondaries that ranked in the top 12 at defending the pass. The Chiefs will be especially daunting since they were able to retain most of their secondary and ranked in the top seven for pass defense efficiency. Therefore, they should be one of the better defenses at covering Allen. The Las Vegas Raiders will not be a threat because their secondary allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wideouts.
Outside of the division, the Patriots will be a tough matchup because they have a top-three secondary that includes Stephon Gillmore. Likewise, the Bills will also be a problematic AFC East game because Tre White and the Buffalo secondary allowed the fourth-least passing yards in 2020. Fortunately for Allen, he will have a reasonably easy contest against the rebuilding Dolphins. Plus, the Buccaneers should be easy since they are more stout against the run than the pass.