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We are just one day away from the 2026 Masters officially kicking off. That can only mean one thing: dissecting the Round 1 Matchups board!
In this article, we’ll touch on overall matchup betting strategy at the Masters, then jump into our favorite plays to consider before the first tee shot on Thursday.
18-Hole Matchup Strategy At The Masters
I tend to prefer betting in the full-tournament matchup markets, as I’m a firm believer that the larger the sample size, the more likely we are to see the superior player prevail.
The Masters, however, is one of the few exceptions where certain individual players’ routines start hot or slow. With a large sample size of players coming to this same event on the same course every single year, that does present some micro trends for us to exploit.
The truth is, Augusta National is a unique golf course, unlike anything these players see throughout the year. Whether it be the slope and speed of the greens, the wind direction, or comfort level over uneven lies and blind shots, some players do not come prepared for their opening round and need more reps under their belts before they can fully acclimate.
In analyzing these Round 1 matchups, I’m looking to sell on debutants, historically slow starters at The Masters, and players in questionable health leading in as opportunities to exploit value. Ahead, we’ll go through four of my favorite Round 1 matchup plays to consider for the 2026 Masters.
Top Round 1 Matchup Plays
Brooks Koepka over Chris Gotterup
Best Odds Available: -114 (DraftKings)
Debutants who find immediate success, like Ludvig Aberg in 2024, are very much the exception to the rule. History has shown that recent form can only go so far for you at Augusta National; to truly contend requires experience and the ability to learn from your inevitable mistakes.
This matchup pits arguably the greatest major player of his generation and two-time Masters runner-up against a 26-year-old seeing Augusta for the very first time. I’m not discrediting the accomplishments of Gotterup in 2026, and I would feel much different about this matchup if it were at the PGA Championship or U.S. Open. But at Augusta National, I’m taking the side of Brooks Koepka to jump out to a hot start on Thursday.
Sungjae Im over Sam Stevens
Best Odds Available: -111 (DraftKings)
By similar logic here, this matchup assumes two players in comparable recent form should have an equal chance to outperform the other in Round 1. If we take course history into account, however, this matchup should be a no contest.
Sungjae Im has three top-10 finishes over his first six appearances at the Masters. He was the first-round leader at the 2022 Masters, proving he’s not gunshy at Augusta National and is capable of jumping out to a hot start. Stevens, by contrast, will be making his very first appearance at the Masters this week, with some very concerning short game form at the moment.
Haotong Li over Johnny Keefer
Best Odds Available: -111 (BetMGM)
You’ll notice a clear trend by now of me fading debutants in their very first round at Augusta National. Beyond the lack of competitive reps, the nerves can also be a very difficult thing for young players to manage at their first Masters.
Keefer is a very promising young talent, but his game is still very raw. He comes into this event with four missed cuts over his last five starts, and ranks near the bottom of the PGA Tour this season in SG: Short Game. Haotong Li, on the other hand, is a veteran who lines up considerably better for what is required at Augusta National; he is a bomber with great approach metrics from beyond 200 yards. While the form results have been equally as poor as Keefer’s leading in, Haotong has been comfortable in majors, making it through the cut in each of his last 6 major appearances.
Sepp Straka over Tyrrell Hatton
Best Odds Available: -116 (DraftKings)
In this PGA vs. LIV matchup amongst Ryder Cup teammates, I’m giving the slight edge to Georgia-native, Sepp Straka, who seems to be just a bit more battle-tested for Augusta National than Hatton has proven in 2026.
Straka is an accurate ball striker who can avoid trouble and catch a hot putter on fast greens. His history at The Masters has been solid with a career-best T16 in 2024.
Comparatively, Tyrrell Hatton has not played to his full potential to date in 2026, and Augusta National is not the kind of course where players can quickly find their games. He has three finishes worse than T35 (effectively a missed cut in LIV’s limited fields) over his last five starts.
Best of luck with your 2026 Masters bets!
Photo Credit: AP/Jason Behnken
