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Fresh off of overreaction week, we now have more concrete data to work with, giving us a clearer picture of who is able to actually make a run to the playoffs. This week’s games to watch include Ole Miss hosting Lane Kiffin in his return to Oxford, a Big 12 title contender in a sneaky position to dethrone Texas Tech, and an ACC battle between SMU and Louisville with the winner putting themselves in a favorable position to run the table.
Week 3 College Football Games to Watch
| Matchup | Kickoff | Network | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 @  |
7:30 PM ET | ABC | Ole Miss +3 |
 @  |
8:00 PM ET | FOX | Houston +9.5 |
 @  |
3:30 PM ET | ESPN2 | Louisville a-2 |
LSU vs. Ole Miss (+3)
All eyes are on LSU and Ole Miss, pitting Lane Kiffin against his former team after a turbulent departure, an SEC battle that will have serious conference title and playoff implications. While the Tigers have been able to thrive under their new head coach, the Rebels have had a rocky start to their year, barely squeaking past Louisville in their season opener.
If Ole Miss is going to upset LSU, then their front seven will need to quickly round back into form, a group who currently ranks outside the top-100 in Def Rush Explosiveness and in Finishing Drives. Especially with Sam Leavitt just as dangerous with his legs as he is with his arm, making it vital they bottle up the Tigers QB before he is able to reach the open field.
Avoiding an early loss to LSU will give Ole Miss some breathing room before their schedule ramps up, drawing the likes of Texas and Georgia who are both considered to be in a tier of their own in the SEC. If the Rebels do drop their Week 3 game against LSU, then their margin for error may be too small for them to overcome.
Houston (+9.5) vs. Texas Tech
Speaking of margins of error, playing in the Big 12 and ACC comes with a cost, lacking the quality wins that are needed to steal a bid from the Big Ten and SEC. In Houston’s case, they must capitalize on their opportunities against Texas Tech and Utah or risk missing out on the playoffs due to their weak resume.
Unfortunately for the Cougars, they lack the talent on offense that is needed to give the Red Raiders fits, entering Week 3 ranked well below league average in Success Rate and in Explosiveness. Their inability to hold their opponents out of scoring position also brings in a high amount of variance into their contests, making it difficult for them to pull away on the scoreboard when the quality of opponent ramps up.
If Houston can thwart Texas Tech, then their probability of making the playoffs skyrockets while putting themselves firmly in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 title. Even if the Cougars lose to Utah later on in the year, a win over the Red Raiders will keep their resume intact, avoiding the possibility of getting bumped out of the top-12 when the final poll is released.
SMU vs. Louisville (-2)
Even after their loss to the Rebels, Louisville still has a clear path to the playoffs, needing to win the ACC in order to secure one of the automatic conference bids. Luckily for the Cardinals, they dodge Miami, turning all their attention towards SMU who is arguably their toughest conference opponent on their schedule this season.
Oddsmakers lean towards Louisville, listing the Cardinals as a short favorite on the lookahead line. When matched up on paper, SMU’s inability to take care of the ball may come back to haunt them, battling it out against a Cardinals defense who resides near the top of the board in Havoc. Turnover Worthy Plays have made it difficult for Kevin Jennings to keep the Mustangs drives alive, averaging nearly one interception per game since 2024.
If Louisville can continue to generate pressure up front and force Jennings into making ill-advised throws, then they can set their offense up with generous field position and turn their scoring opportunities into points on the board. Every bit of their production on defense will be needed in order to keep them competitive, desperately needing to mask an offense who currently ranks 98th in Pass Success Rate and 76th in Finishing Drives.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
