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Top TD Picks: Kaleb Johnson & Drake London
We’re all set for a matchup of NFC teams on Week 3 Thursday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. The Falcons have looked like the worst team in the NFL so far, coming off a blowout loss at home against the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the Packers survived a close call against the New York Jets with a win in overtime. We’re focusing on a changing of the guard in the Packers’ backfield, along with the impact of a new quarterback for the Falcons with out Week 3 Thursday Night Football touchdown props.
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Kaleb Johnson Touchdown Odds
The Packers immediately traded for Kaleb Johnson once it was confirmed that Josh Jacobs would be facing a suspension. The former third-round pick never got a chance with the Steelers, falling behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell last year, before the team ultimately decided to cut bait this offseason. But make no mistake, this was a touted prospect who rushed for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns in his final year at Iowa.
In Week 1, Johnson didn’t get any touches. But MarShawn Lloyd (13 ATT, 37 YDS, 2.8 YPC) and Chris Brooks (7 ATT, 29 YDS, 4.1 YPC) were both underwhelming on the ground. We saw Johnson start to get more work in Week 2. In fact, he led the team in carries (8 ATT, 32 YDS, 4.0 YPC). Johnson was more efficient than both Lloyd (6 ATT, 20 YDS, 3.3 YPC) and Brooks (4 ATT, 11 YDS, 2.8 YPC) in that game.
In response to that performance, there has been a lot of talk about Johnson getting more touches this week. Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur said publicly that they’ll try to get him more work, especially since he’s getting more comfortable in the offense. That makes Johnson the best bet of the Packers’ backfield to find the end zone this week.
Green Bay is 5.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, so it sets up as a favorable game script, which could mean more rushing volume. At around +180 odds at the time of this article, Johnson is worth a look to find an end zone in this spot.
Drake London Touchdown Odds
Drake London has gotten off to a poor start this season, putting up only six catches for 80 yards in two games. However, we can chalk this up to atrocious quarterback play from Cooper Rush. Last year, London caught 68-of-112 targets for 919 yards and seven touchdowns in only 12 games. He’s proven himself as a wideout who can find the end zone, totaling 16 touchdowns in his last two seasons.
What’s huge for London here is that Michael Penix Jr. is back under center. Not only is Penix a major upgrade over Rush, but he’s also a better fit with London. We saw how Penix peppered London with targets in his starts last year. London had a stretch where he scored six touchdowns in only five games last season. All of those games came with Penix.
I’m betting that this will be a close game against the Packers, one that could come down to the wire. Green Bay is dealing with a ton of injuries on the offensive line, while Penix’s return is a huge boost. To that end, London should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone here.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
