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We had our second profitable day in a row on Monday, as both Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber hit homers for a 2-1 day. Let’s try to make it three in a row on the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Colson Montgomery, Dominic Canzone, and Teoscar Hernandez. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard. Their prices are reasonable, which makes it more appealing.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 32-139 (-1.14 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, May 26
Colson Montgomery Home Run Odds
Colson Montgomery is currently slashing .217/.321/.466 with 13 home runs in 218 plate appearances. If we combine last year with this year, the White Sox shortstop has 34 homers in only 502 plate appearances. It’s been an impressive start for this second-year player, at least in the power department.
While strikeouts are an issue, the barrel rate looks solid at 13.7%. As a left-handed hitter, Montgomery is better against righties, putting up a 123 wRC+ against them this season.
Up next is a matchup vs. Joe Ryan, which looks tough on paper. After all, Ryan has established himself as one of the best starters in the American League.
However, if we dig under the hood, we see that Ryan is much worse against left-handed hitters, allowing a .276 wOBA against them (.232 wOBA vs. righties). Each of the three homers Ryan has allowed this year has come against lefties.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Montgomery to hit No. 14 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Dominic Canzone Home Run Odds
Dominic Canzone is slashing .237/.315/.447 with five home runs in 130 plate appearances. These are underwhelming numbers, but a power binge could be coming, as the barrel rate looks great at 14.9%.
As a left-handed hitter, Canzone is much better against righties, putting up a 123 wRC+ against them this season (85 wRC+ vs. righties). We just saw Canzone homer last night, so perhaps this could be the start of a power binge.
The matchup is a good one vs. Luis Severino, as the veteran righty has given up a .372 wOBA vs. lefties (.310 wOBA against righties).
Add in the fact that this game is at one of the most hitter-friendly environments in Sutter Health Park, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. The price looks good for these conditions. Risk 0.1 units.
Teoscar Hernandez Home Run Odds
Teoscar Hernandez is currently slashing .277/.350/.441 with seven home runs in 200 plate appearances. The barrel rate still looks relatively in line with career norms at 11.2%.
We’re starting to see the veteran outfielder heat up at the plate, as he’s hit safely in six consecutive games. During this stretch, he’s homered twice.
I like the spot against Rockies’ left-hander Kyle Freeland tonight. Freeland has a 5.73 xERA on the season, allowing a 2.11 HR/9, so home runs have definitely been an issue.
Hernandez has a 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career (112 wRC+ vs. righties), so this is the right matchup for him, especially since he’s coming in hot. Risk 0.1 units.
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