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We came pretty close with Luka last night. He scored the Lakers’ first basket but not the game’s. Like Wemby, he may be one of those players that has value on his first basket price despite short odds. Tyler Herro (who scored the first basket in that Lakers game) has already been kind to us this season, so we can’t be too mad.
For today’s NBA first basket pick, we’re rolling with Alex Sarr at odds. Happy Thursday the 12th.
Why Alex Sarr for NBA First Basket vs. the Pistons
Detroit will be without Jalen Duren (hamstring), which takes their best jumper out of the circle. That likely leaves Paul Reed or another backup big contesting the tip against Sarr, who stands 7-foot with a 7-4 wingspan and has the length edge on basically anyone the Pistons can throw out there. Winning the tip doesn’t guarantee anything, but it gives Washington the first crack at a bucket, and that’s the first step in any first basket bet.
The game script also works in Sarr’s favor. He’s been efficient to start the season, shooting north of 50% from the field, and a lot of his looks come right at the rim on lobs, put-backs and short rolls. Those are the kinds of shots that show up early in possessions, when the Wizards are running their first set and looking to get their big man involved. With Duren out, Detroit is also thinner in the paint, so if Washington wins the tip and goes inside, Sarr is a natural first option.
Then there’s the price. At +700, the bet implies roughly a 12.5% chance that Sarr scores the game’s first basket. For a starting center who should be favored to win the tip, is shooting efficiently and is facing a frontcourt missing its anchor, that number feels a bit long. Guards and high-usage wings usually soak up the shorter first basket odds, so bigs like Sarr are often where the value sits, and that’s exactly why we’re backing him tonight.
NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2026 | Alex Sarr | +700 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 11/11/2026 | Luka Doncic | +475 | 1.00 | 3.5-12 | ▲9.25 |
| 11/10/2026 | Darius Garland | +575 | 1.00 | 3.5-11 | ▲10.25 |
| 11/07/2026 | Ivica Zubac | +550 | 1.00 | 3.5-10 (free throws) | ▲11.25 |
| 11/06/2026 | Walker Kessler | +575 | 1.00 | 3-10 | ▲8.50 |
| 11/05/2026 | Pelle Larsson | +600 | 1.00 | 3-9 | ▲9.50 |
| 11/04/2026 | De'Aaron Fox | +600 | 1.00 | 3-8 | ▲10.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | Zach Edey | +470 | 1.00 | 3-7 | ▲11.50 |
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | 3-6 | ▲ 12.50 |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
