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Fresh off a memorable seven-game Western Conference Finals slugfest against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder the Spurs impressively closed out with three wins in the last four games, Victor Wembanyama and co. head into an NBA Finals showdown against a New York Knicks squad that will begin the series with big rest advantage.
However, San Antonio will have three days of down time of its own ahead of Game 1, and a fascinating statistical nugget to keep in mind for the series’ opening salvo is the fact the Spurs are an NBA-best 17-2 straight up since the start of the regular season when playing with a rest disadvantage.
Thanks to their back-to-back sweeps of the 76ers and Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinals and finals, the Knicks, participating in their first Finals since 1999, have played just 14 postseason games to date and last suffered a defeat in Game 5 of the first round against the Hawks on April 28. Jalen Brunson has unsurprisingly been New York’s most consistent game-to-game performer, but the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have all filled key complementary roles.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Betting Analysis
As noted below, the Spurs, who’ll have home-floor advantage in the Finals, are solid favorites to prevail in the series against the Knicks after proving their mettle with a WCF win over the Thunder that included two road victories in one of the toughest environments in the league. San Antonio’s defense was downright elite at times during the series, holding Oklahoma City, which finished the regular season averaging the fifth-most points per game (119.0), to 103 points or less in three games, including less than 100 in two of them.
The Spurs did lose two of their three regular-season games against the Knicks when factoring in a 124-113 defeat in the NBA Cup Championship on Dec. 16. However, it’s worth noting Wembanyama came off the bench in that game for the Spurs due to ongoing injury management for a calf strain that had previously cost him 12 contests. San Antonio’s one win came in a 134-132 thriller on New Year’s Eve at Frost Bank Center that saw the Spurs mount a rally from a 10-point halftime deficit with 71 second-half points, while New York easily prevailed at Madison Square Garden by a 114-89 score on March 1.
By the numbers, the matchup tilts ever so slightly toward the Spurs. During the regular season, San Antonio averaged the third-most points per game (119.7), and they allowed the eighth fewest per contest (111.7) as well. New York checked in with an average of 116.5 points per game — the 10th most in the league — while surrendering the fifth fewest (110.2). The biggest X-factor from an individual player perspective is naturally Wembanyama, who’s now gained a certain degree of postseason seasoning with his strong playoff run and will be a matchup nightmare all series long.
Additionally, Stephon Castle, the Spurs’ 2024 fourth overall pick, has also stepped his game up and served as arguably the most consistent complement to Wembanyama over the entirety of the postseason. The talented guard has delivered 19.2 points (48.1% shooting), 6.7 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.0 steals across 33.5 minutes per playoff game, delivering a trio of double-doubles along the way. De’Aaron Fox could also be a key asset for San Antonio if he can prove that his Game 7 resurgence in the WCF after a two-game slump can carry over.
Naturally, the Knicks won’t be an easy out by any stretch. New York is brimming with confidence thanks to the nine-game winning streak it enters the Finals with. The fact all of Bridges, Hart and Anunoby have made critical contributions alongside Brunson and Towns for the majority of the playoff run has been integral to the Knicks’ dominance, and Miles McBride, while not a game-to-game factor, did have a pair of double-digit scoring efforts, including a 25-point tally in the Game 4 series-clinching victory over the 76ers in the semifinal round.
However, it also bears noting that the defensive matchup posed by the Spurs is the toughest the Knicks have seen to date in the postseason. Atlanta, Philadelphia and Cleveland all finished ranked No. 15 or lower in points per game allowed during the regular season, and Joel Embiid, the closest big to Wembanyama the Knicks faced in the first three rounds, was playing hurt throughout the semifinal round and missed Game 2 altogether. Meanwhile, Castle (105.3 defensive rating) could prove to be a highly effective defensive nuisance for Brunson if primarily shadowing him, and that would naturally alter the Knicks’ normal course of play significantly.
Given the factors cited, a bet on the Spurs prevailing in six games seems like the most prudent of the available series spread bets to take.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Prediction, Pick & Best Bet
Spurs to cover the -1.5 series spread is the series best bet.
Best Bet: Spurs Series Spread -1.5 (+115)
Series Prediction: Spurs 4-2
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Schedule
- Wed., June 3- Game 1: New York at San Antonio – 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Fri., June 5- Game 2: New York at San Antonio – 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Mon., June 8 – Game 3: San Antonio at New York – 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Wed., June 10 – Game 4: San Antonio at New York – 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Sat., June 13- Game 5: New York at San Antonio- 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Tues., June 16- Game 6: San Antonio at New York- 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
- Fri., June 19- Game 7: New York at San Antonio- 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Odds
Series Winner
Series Spread
- Spurs +1.5 (-340)
- Spurs -1.5 (+115)
- Spurs +2.5 (-1100)
- Spurs -2.5 (+210)
- Knicks +1.5 (-140)
- Knicks -1.5 (+270)
- Knicks +2.5 (-260)
- Knicks -2.5 (+210)
Total Games
Series Score
- Spurs 4-0 (+700)
- Spurs 4-1 (+380)
- Spurs 4-2 (+500)
- Spurs 4-3 (+310)
- Knicks 4-0 (+2000)
- Knicks 4-1 (+1200)
- Knicks 4-2 (+500)
- Knicks 4-3 (+700)
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Betting Resources
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Players to Watch
New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson – Last Game: (15 points, 5 assists, 2 rebounds)
Karl-Anthony Towns – Last Game: (19 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks)
Mikal Bridges– Last Game: (15 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds)
San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama – Last Game: (22 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block)
Stephon Castle – Last Game: (16 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal)
De’Aaron Fox – Last Game: (15 points, 5 assists, 3 steals)
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Finals MVP Best Bet
Wembanyama is unsurprisingly the odds-on favorite to take home the storied Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP Trophy, but he’s also far and away our best bet. Naturally, with our prediction above the Spurs will prevail in the series, the MVP will be a member of San Antonio’s squad, and there’s certainly no better candidate to perform at an MVP-caliber level than the 2023 first overall pick.
Wembanyama enjoyed a standout regular season that included new career highs in points (25.0), rebounds (11.5) and shooting percentage (51.2), and he’s followed it up with a terrific postseason run even when factoring in a pair of 12-minute stints on the floor that skew his overall numbers somewhat. The talented big man has put up 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 3.5 blocks across 32.5 minutes per contest while shooting 51% over a 17-game sample, recording nine double-doubles and multiple blocks in all but one game as well.
Wemby naturally enjoys a size advantage against whoever he’ll be matched up against on the Knicks, and his averages of 28.0 points (on 62.1% shooting), 13.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 2.5 blocks in two regular-season non-NBA-Cup-Championship games versus New York seem to bear out that he’s highly capable of some elite performances while facing the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns and even fellow seven-footer Mitchell Robinson, who’ll enter the series recovering from recent surgery on a broken pinky finger.
Best Bet: Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki
