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Week 3 of the NFL season is already underway with the Atlanta Falcons blowing the doors off the Green Bay Packers, 35-14, at Lambeau Field. Now, we look ahead to the weekend slate. Week 2 brought injuries to young signal callers like Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, and Jayden Daniels. Let’s hope this week will be kinder in terms of injuries.
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Below are my top three picks against the spread in Week 3. Be sure to also check out the best NFL Week 3 point total picks as well!
Best NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread
- Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
- Minnesota Vikings -1.5
- Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Given the results of the first two weeks, I cannot find a reason to take the Steelers here.
In Week 1, the Bengals offense was fantastic, scoring 33 points at home. They followed that up with fewer points in Week 2 (20), but their defense showed out big against the Houston Texans. They held the Texans to just six points, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence has played well since being acquired with the No. 10 overall pick.
As for the Steelers, they’re 1-1. That said, their lone win came by a touchdown against a bad Atlanta Falcons team with Cooper Rush under center. In Week 2, they were totally overmatched. They scored just three points on the road against the New England Patriots. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s completed fewer than 60% of his passes so far and only 40% when pressured.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s no secret that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores likes to send pressure, and through two games, they’re delivering.
They’re second in the NFL in pressures with 44, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 13 of 34 passes (38.2%) for 145 yards 6.1 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and two interceptions.
This doesn’t bode well for Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. When pressured this season, Mayfield has completed 58.3% of his passes for 63 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, and one touchdown. He’s far from the worst quarterback when pressured, but 5.3 yards per attempt limits the offense’s upside. The Buccaneers have allowed 25 pressures (tied for 10th in the NFL), but taking on the Vikings, this could be one of their toughest pass-blocking tests.
One of the Vikings’ best pass rushers is edge rusher Dallas Turner, who had 11 pressures in Week 2 alone. On top of that, the Vikings will have quarterback Kyler Murray back under center, which raises the offense’s floor.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami Dolphins
Last up, there’s no way I can pass on the Chiefs at -10.5. This Dolphins team just looks completely out of sorts. The Dolphins have scored 13 points in each of the first two games against the Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have scored 30 or more in both of their first two games. Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has just one touchdown pass, and their star running back, De’Von Achane, is averaging well under four yards per carry. In addition to a terrible offense, the Dolphins are dead last in the NFL in pressures with 14. Even when they’ve delivered pressure, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 10.2 yards per attempt (the third-highest rate in the NFL).
Going back to Willis, he’ll likely see a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 in this matchup based on the first two games. Against those coverages so far this season, he’s completed 58.1% of his passes and has one touchdown and one interception.
Their lack of pressure will be a massive problem, too. When Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been under pressure this season, he’s completed 68.4% of his passes for five touchdowns and one interception. Last season, he was even better, with a 71% completion percentage and 20 touchdown strikes.
The Dolphins’ lack of an offense and their ability to pressure the quarterback will make it difficult to stay within 11 points.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
