Share 
Week 2 of the NFL season was brutal for injuries, with New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart now ruled out for the season. In addition, Washington Commanders signal-caller Jayden Daniels and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams also suffered injuries. In Week 3, we’ve already seen the first “over” of the week, with the Atlanta Falcons beating the Green Bay Packers 35-14 (49 total points). The total in this game was 42.5 points.
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Keeping that in mind, here are the three best totals picks for Week 3. Be sure to check out the best ATS picks for NFL Week 3 as well!
Best NFL Week 3 Totals Picks
- Bills vs. Chargers: Under 50.5 Points
- Commanders vs. Seahawks: Over 40.5 Points
- Browns vs. Panthers: Under 42.5 Points
Bills vs. Chargers: Under 50.5
No team has had a more impactful start to the season than the Bills. They put up 36 in Week 1 and 41 in Week 2. Next up is a Chargers team that’s allowing 26 points per game, and their opponents have been the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders. It also doesn’t bode well for the Chargers defense on the road, playing in a brand-new stadium that’ll be rocking with Bills fans.
So, my focus is going to be on the Chargers. The Bills have allowed a lot of points this season, including 31 in their first two games against the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. Based on Week 2, the Bills play a lot of Cover-3 and Cover-4. Against those coverages this season, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has completed 57.6% of his passes and has one touchdown pass and three interceptions.
He was much better against these coverages last season, but he has a new offensive coordinator that he’s still gelling with. Plus, injuries to the interior offensive line don’t help. The Chargers offense will lag just enough to keep this total down.
Commanders vs. Seahawks: Over 40.5
The Commanders will be without Daniels, and thus, we’ll see Marcus Mariota. On the other side, we should see Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold back under center after he was a full participant in practice on Thursday. Mariota has filled in fairly often for the Commanders. He started eight games last season and threw 10 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.
In Week 2, the Seahawks primarily deployed Cover-3 and Cover-6 against the Arizona Cardinals and quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Since last season, Mariota has completed 70.3% of his passes for 731 yards (eight yards per attempt), two touchdowns, and four interceptions against those.
When it comes to an over/under, this helps going over in that he’s had success in completing passes, and while there are the interceptions, those could result in points going the other way. As for the Seahawks, they have Darnold back, and their offense looked strong in Week 2. Mariota will play better than expected and help push this total to 41 points or more.
Browns vs. Panthers: Under 42.5
The Browns are coming off a big win, scoring 30-plus points, and the Panthers also put up 34 points in Week 2. However, this will be a lower-scoring game. In Week 2 against the Buccaneers, the Browns sent a lot of man coverage. Since last season, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has completed 46.2% of his passes for 596 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), eight touchdown passes, and four interceptions against man coverage.
For the season, he’s completed 63% of his passes. On the other side, I cannot rely on Deshaun Watson at all. Sure, he had a nice Week 2, completing 80% of his passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns. Again, I’m not at a place where I can trust him yet.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
