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Best Bet: U154.5 (-120) at BetRivers
Score Prediction: Virginia 80, Maryland 74
The Pick: Virginia 80, Maryland 74
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data along with Maryland betting stats against ACC schools.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a tough one, but we’re leaning with the Under as conviction is somewhat low. The reason? Maryland is averaging an insane 163 total points at home this season while also hitting the Over in six of nine games against AP ranked schools. But everything else screams Under, which includes Virginia’s defense holding schools to 72 points or less in four straight games, including Arkansas. Also, the total given is 151.5 which has gone Under in four of the last five meetings. Lastly, Maryland has actually seen just 147 total points at home in nine straight games when facing the ACC. The Terrapins’ home stats lower our conviction for this one, but the ATS data is too foggy for both schools and the head-to-head paired with Maryland-vs-ACC data supports the Under instead.
Virginia-Maryland Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Virginia’s Battle-Tested Rotation vs. Maryland’s 11-newcomer roster
No. 9 Virginia arrives in College Park on an 3-0 start that’s already the program’s best in over two decades in terms of scoring punch, and it’s been built on more than just schedule-softening. Ryan Odom’s Cavaliers, who went 30-6 and finished second in the ACC a year ago while returning 10 of 11 eligible players, opened by blitzing Drexel 89-60 and Northeastern 97-72 — 186 combined points through two games, the most for the program since 2001-02, with an arena-record 18 steals forced against Drexel alone. Then came the signature result: a 91-72 beatdown of then-No. 12 Arkansas at Capital One Arena in which Virginia led by as many as 27, didn’t let the Razorbacks reach 60 points until under five minutes remained, and got every starter into double figures. The depth showed up immediately when Thijs De Ridder picked up early foul trouble — Johann Grünloh, the 7-foot center, answered with a career-high 35 minutes, 15 points, 4 rebounds, 5 blocks and 2 assists off the bench. With Sam Lewis and De Ridder both averaging 20 points per game and Chance Mallory adding 14, this is a team that can beat opponents multiple ways, and that kind of balance travels well against a Big Ten opponent that hasn’t settled on an identity yet.
Maryland, meanwhile, is still trying to figure out who it is in Year 2 under Buzz Williams, who went 12-21 in a miserable debut season and responded by bringing in 11 newcomers — six transfers and four freshmen — around a five-man returning core. The 96-67 season-opening rout of Bucknell looked encouraging on paper (Andre Mills posted a 22-point, 11-rebound double-double, and Maryland won the boards 54-22), but it came against an overmatched mid-major, and the first real test told a different story: an 86-74 loss on the road at Georgetown that dropped the Terps to 1-1 and exposed exactly the chemistry issues you’d expect from a roster this remade, with new faces like transfers DJ Wagner and Mike McNair Jr. and five-star freshman Baba Oladotun still learning to play alongside holdovers Pharrel Payne — a Preseason All-Big Ten pick who’s still working back from the injury that wrecked much of his 2025-26 season — and Mills. If Maryland’s offense is still leaning on the kind of inflated numbers it padded against Bucknell rather than generating the low-turnover, inside-out balance Virginia just showed off against a ranked SEC opponent, this new-look group is in for a long night against a Cavaliers team playing with far more cohesion and far more proven firepower up and down its rotation.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, November 13, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: Peacock
- Location: College Park, Maryland
- Venue: XFINITY Center – 163 ppg
College Basketball Game Trends & Odds
Key Players
Virginia Cavaliers
- Chance Mallory — Last Game: 16 points, 6 assists
- Thijs De Ridder — Last Game: 15 points, 8 rebounds
Maryland Terrapins
- Pharrel Payne — Last Game: 28 points, 8 rebounds
- DJ Wagner — Last Game: 11 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
