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Best Bet: O7 (-107) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Rays 2
The Pick: Yankees 6, Rays 2
We’ll take the Over based on head-to-head trends along with both team’s data off a day of rest.
Game Betting Analysis
We’re taking the Over in this one, hitting in Game 1 and Game 2 for New York’s Wild Card series against Boston, marking now 12 straight games the Over has hit for New York when facing the AL at night. The Over has hit in three straight meetings with Tampa Bay, including five of the last seven. Also, Tampa Bay has hit the Over in 10 straight games when playing as a favorite off rest, while New York has hit the Over in seven straight road games when coming off rest. The winning team has scored six runs in five of seven meetings, and with a line at 7 that’s another data point worth backing on the Over with.
MLB Game Trends & Betting Data
Yankees vs. Rays Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Gerrit Cole’s Mastery of Tampa Bay vs. Drew Rasmussen’s Postseason Inexperience
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for Game 1, and the matchup could hardly be more lopsided in his favor. Cole owns a 3.33 ERA across 23 career starts against the Rays, his best mark against any opponent in baseball, and he didn’t deviate from that script in 2026, allowing three runs or fewer in all three regular-season starts versus Tampa Bay. The Yankees needed just two games to sweep Boston in the Wild Card round, which means Cole enters fully rested and without the workload concerns that come with a taxed bullpen.
Drew Rasmussen, by contrast, is the better pitcher on paper this year, going 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts that put him among the American League’s elite. But he’s never faced this kind of stage before, returning to the postseason for the first time since 2022 and carrying a 5.79 career playoff ERA from those earlier appearances. Tampa Bay won the AL East by 4.5 games over New York and finished 97-63, a clearly superior regular-season résumé, but if Rasmussen’s postseason rust shows up the way Cole’s history against the Rays suggests it might, the better team on paper could still find itself down 1-0 in the series.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Network: TBS, TruTV
- Venue: Tropicana Field – 8.6 runs per game; 37-42-3 O/U
- Series Score: Tied 0-0
Key Players
New York Yankees
- Cody Bellinger — Last Game: 2/5, HR, 4 RBI, R
- Ben Rice — Last Game: 1/4, R, BB
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero — Last Game: 0/2
- Liam Hicks — Last Game: 2/4, 2 2B
Photo Credit: REUTERS
