2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Craig Ranch
Another week of PGA TOUR action brings us to TPC Craig Ranch, with the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson next on tap. Compare CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, and Jordan Spieth project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
We are back in the saddle as the PGA TOUR returns to the Lone Star State. For the fourth time in the longstanding history of the Byron Nelson, we head TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney, just north of Dallas. As always, we’ll prepare you for navigating CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds by running through key info in our course preview.
TPC Craig Ranch is about as easy they come on the PGA TOUR. It has wide open fairways, large receptive greens, and few penalty hazards. It will have a new look in 2026, however, having just undergone a $25 Million renovation last December. We’ll uncover it all in this week’s tournament preview!
Ahead, we’ll run through the key facts and info about TPC Craig Ranch ahead of the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
CJ CUP BYRON NELSON ODDS: THE FAVORITES
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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
A week after one of the most exciting major clashes of titans we’ve seen in the last decade, we will have cold water thrown in our face in McKinney, Texas. As expected, everyone who has the option to skip this new stake-less event on the heels of a major and two signature events, is skipping this event. All of the elite players who’ve chosen to tee it up are here because of their strong Texas ties.
World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title after eviscerating the field in 2025. He shot a -8 final round, finishing -31 for the week and clearing the next closest competitor by eight strokes. It was golf’s version of “What would happen if we put Wemby in the NCAA Tournament?”.
Scheffler is the only OWGR top-20 player in this field, and there are only three others who rank inside the top-50: Si Woo Kim, Aaron Rai, and Michael Kim. Even Rai’s commitment to this event is in question after his momentous win at Aronimink.
World ranking aside, this field does have some star power. Texas star Jordan Spieth is here with high hopes, finishing 2nd and 4th over the last three years. Brooks Koepka continues his quest for his first PGA Tour win since his return from LIV, and will have a great opportunity in front of him.
Other players with strong Texas ties in this week’s field include Sungjae Im, Pierceson Coody, Tom Kim, and Tom Hoge.
In addition to the defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Pendrith and KH Lee will return as former champions.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC CRAIG RANCH
TPC Craig Ranch earned a reputation as the most vanilla, negligible test of golf since joining the PGA Tour schedule in 2021. Each year, they have tried (and failed) to make new course modifications in an effort to toughen up this test for the game’s best. They have added length, converted par 5s to long par 4s, and adjusted course setup, but through it all, this event has always been a birdie fest.
While golf fans may be sick of seeing this course and event, the PGA Tour has actually doubled down. TPC Craig Ranch underwent a $22 Million renovation led by Lanny Wadkins in December 2025, completely redoing the course, adding new bunkers, changing the turf, and moving tee boxes. After such a significant overhaul, it is difficult to predict with any certainty how this differently this new look course will play in 2026, but we will break down everything you need to know about the changes.
The New Look TPC Craig Ranch
In 2025, TPC Craig Ranch played as a 7,569 yard par-71. The rules are, if KH Lee wins your event twice, and another player wins beyond 30-under-par, you must rip everything up and start over, so that is exactly what they’ve done.
In 2026, TPC Craig Ranch will play 200 yards shorter. The official scorecard yardage is a par-71 7,385 yards. That is almost identical to Aronimink, with one additional par-5.
Long irons will still be important at this event, as five of the seven par-4s still measure beyond 470. Wedge play will be important too, however, as the course also features five par-4s under 435 yards.
In terms of agronomy, the fairways are still Zoysia, but have been updated with Stadium Zoysia. The rough has been upgraded with TifTuf Bermuda, which will give the course a more vibrant look and feel. The greens are still Bentgrass, but now feature 777 Bentgrass, a next-generation turf known for delivering elite-level speed, consistency, and smoothness.
Lastly, the drainage system has been completely overhauled as part of this project. That tells us two things. Number 1, TPC Craig Ranch is here to stay on the PGA Tour for a long time whether you like it or not. And number 2, we won’t see this course puddle up and cause sustain weather stoppages like we have in years past.
The first five years of action at TPC Craig Ranch proved to be a typical birdie-fest and putting contest. Elite ball-striking skillsets are at less of a premium on this layout, with the course offering little resistance from tee to green. That’s especially true when all the elite players are looking for a break between Signature Events and Majors this time of year. Plus-distance helps here, but that hasn’t stopped players like Troy Merritt, Satoshi Kodaira, Matt Kuchar, and Ben Kohles from contending over the last few years. It may be another good week to spread exposure across a wider list of longshots (in the Without Scheffler market), given the randomness associated with putting contests.
How It Breaks Down
Among the 40 annual PGA Tour courses, TPC Craig Ranch ranks bottom-5 in difficulty in ten categories. Those include Scoring Average to Par, Par 4 Scoring, Driving Standard Deviation, SG: ARG & SG: APP Difficultly, 150+ Yard Approach Difficulty, ARG Difficulty, Putting Outside 15 Feet and Penalty Shots Per Round.
Expanding on Driving Standard Deviation, this means players are not laying up off the tee. They instead freely swing the driver on every chance. Sticky Zoysia fairways prevent run-off, and large 40-yard wide fairways yielded a gaudy 72% hit rate in 2021. With the course maintaining Zoysia fairways after the renovation, I expect the high fairway in regulation percentage to continue, and the importance of SG: OTT to diminish.
The rough doesn’t rate as penal, and no real penalty areas loom on tee shots. The addition of Bermuda rough will add a slight penalty for wayward misses, but this course is still your quintessential second-shot course. While distance helps, elite skills off the tee will give players far less of an advantage on this course than most.
Players also hit these greens in regulation at an equally high 73% clip. For the 27% of approaches that do miss, players still get some of the more straightforward greenside complexes on TOUR. They should not have much trouble scrambling.
Without any tests across the board, it truly does become a random week that simply comes down to who can generate and convert the most birdie opportunities.
TPC CRAIG RANCH COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,385
- Par: 71 (4x 3s / 11x 4s / 3x 5s)
- Grass: Bentgrass Greens, Zoysia Fairways
- Architect: Tom Weiskopf
- Historical Cut Line: -5
- Comp Courses: Colonial CC, Vidanta Vallarta, Coco Beach, CC of Jackson, Silverado Resort, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, Plantation Course at Kapalua, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities
EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
Over its first five years at TPC Craig Ranch, just seven players in this field have finished inside the top 20 multiple times: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Stephan Jaeger, Matt Kuchar, KH Lee, and Seamus Power.
Overall, the top-10 in course history at TPC Craig Ranch features Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, KH Lee, Eric Cole, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Pendrith, Seamus Power, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Austin Eckroat, and Jhonattan Vegas.
Course Comps
I believe it’s best to reference recent form across a volume of comp courses than to isolate five years of performance here. That is especially true given the new course renovations, as we cannot say for sure how this new-look Craig Ranch will play out. I’m looking for easy, second-shot courses with above-average distance and some exposure to gusting winds as comps. These courses yield a high amount of birdies with very few bogeys.
Given the new renovation, shorter yardage and geographic location, Colonial Country Club is a comp course worth referencing this week. While TPC Craig Ranch has a reputation as a long bombers course, this week it will play within 100 yards of Colonial.
Prior to the renovations, Vidanta Vallarta, host of the Mexico Open, stood out to me as the top overall comp course to TPC Craig Ranch. Both are long, open, and easy-to-score venues in which the only true resistance offered to the field is the wind.
Similar to the Mexico Open, I think Grand Reserve (host of the Puerto Rico Open) most closely resembles the characteristics needed at TPC Craig Ranch, especially if we get the windy conditions typically expected in the Texas swing. Both courses favor longer hitters without penalty on their tee shots but still offer moderate scoring for the full field.
After Grand Reserve, an assortment of courses like CC of Jackson, Silverado Resort, El Cardonal at Diamante, and The Plantation Course at Kapalua each play as second-shot courses that mitigate advantage from positioning off the tee.
TPC Scottsdale may also fit, given the Tom Weiskopf design connection and correlation for KH Lee, who had his best career finish just three months prior when he placed T2 at the WM Phoenix Open.
TPC Twin Cities, and Detroit Golf Club rate as more tertiary comps. They have also seen some correlated leaderboards and require a similar skillset of long irons and Birdies or Better Gained.
Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Aaron Rai, Matt Kuchar, Davis Thompson, Taylor Moore, Sungjae Im, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions)
- SG: APP
- Driving Distance
- Prox 200+
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Course & Comp Course History
When we get to a second-shot course, approach play comes at the greatest premium. The top 10 players in SG: APP this week are: Ben Kohles, Brooks Koepka, Aaron Rai, Zac Blair, Sam Ryder, Austin Eckroat, Marty Dou, Scottie Scheffler, John Parry, and Tom Kim.
Looking more granularly at approaches from 200+, that top-10 list includes Ben Kohles, Zac Blair, Cameron Champ, Harry Higgs, Keita Nakajima, Brooks Koepka, Paul Peterson, Michael Brennan, Si Woo Kim, and Rasmus Neergaard Petersen
If the formula is as simple as irons, putting, and birdies, just seven players rate out top-40 in each category: Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Sam Ryder, Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mac Meissner, and Rasmus Hojgaard.
Over the years, TPC Craig Ranch has continued to find new ways to lengthen the course in an effort to offer a sterner test. It hasn’t worked, but it has made it more difficult for shorter players to contend. Even at the shorter yardage, distance will be important to score on the par-5s and long par-4s. The top-10 players in recent form leading in who are also above-average in Driving Distance includes: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Austin Eckroat, Pontus Nyholm, Karl Vilips, Michael Thorbjornsen, Davis Thompson, Mac Meissner, and William Mouw.
Birdie-Making Ability
This week centers around making birdies and capitalizing on easy scoring conditions. Very few situations this week require precision off the tee or advanced scrambling skills. With players hitting both the fairways and greens in regulation at about 72%, this week should come down to who can set up birdie opportunities and convert them.
The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Trace Crowe, Keith Mitchell, Yatlor Montgomery, Paul Peterson, Hayden Springer, Lanto Griffin, Wyndham Clark, Ben Silverman, and Max Greyserman.
Wrapping this all together, the ideal player should rank above average in SG: APP, Prox: 200+, Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting, and Comp Course History. Just six players fit this criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Eric Cole, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Blades Brown, Jordan Spieth, and Rasmus Hojgaard.
Correlation
We can’t lean too heavily on correlation charts due to the small sample size. That brings some outliers to the fold, such as Double Bogey Avoidance and P3: 150-175 popping up as two of the top stats for this week. I looked beyond that from a modeling perspective and expect those stats to fall further down the list as the sample size grows.
The broader takeaway from these stats suggests that the winner must take advantage of the easiest scoring opportunities and simply move on with pars on the 200+ par 3s and 490+ par 4s. If players can make it through the week at even par on the six holes that average over, they should position themselves well to contend by taking advantage of birdie opportunities on the other 12 holes.
Eight players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Wyndham Clark, Aaron Rai, Thorbjorn Olesen, Chris Kirk, John Parry, and Ben Kohles.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT
The quiet, no-flash, all-business, lunch-pail golfer is having a moment now. Could Bezuidenhout be the next to follow in Aaron Rai footsteps? Like Rai, Bezuidenhout’s trip to the opposite field event in Myrtle Beach may have been a fruitful reset and confidence boost. He posted T6 there, his best finish of the 2026 season, and closed out strong at the PGA Championship, shooting a final round 67 to finish T35.
Like Ella Langley, Bezuidenhout is Choosin’ Texas. He has gained the most strokes on Texas courses outside of Scottie Scheffler over the last 36 rounds. That includes eight top-25 finishes over his last 10 starts between the Valero Texas Open, Texas Children’s Houston Open, Charles Schwab Challenge, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
His most consistent results have come at Colonial, which I believe will be the top overall comp course following TPC Crag Ranch’s latest renovation. Bezuidenhout has finished top-20 in each of his last four trips to the Charles Schwab Challenge.
There are concerns about Bezuidenhout’s ability to win a PGA Tour event, but I am firmly committed to betting in the Without Scheffler market this week. Coincidentally, Bezuidenhout has “won” a PGA Tour event without actually winning it before, claiming first-place earnings at the 2024 American Express when amateur Nick Dunlap won. Perhaps a similar fate may be in store this week.
2026 CJ CUP BYRON NELSON ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early on towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
CJ CUP BYRON NELSON MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Birdie or Better Gained and Par 5 Scoring, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Prox 200+, SG: P (Bent) and Driving Distance.
To no surprise, it’s World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler who claims the No. 1 honors in my model this week as he makes his return to Texas. Scheffler is a man amongst boys in this field and has opened at the shortest odds we’ve seen from a tournament favorite since prime Tiger Woods. After an 8-stroke walloping of the field in 2025, the odds premium is justified in this field so deficient of depth.
After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Si Woo Kim, Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Thorbjorn Olesen, Pierceson Coody, Keith Mitchell, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Aaron Rai.
When the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds open, I’m looking for another longer list of long shots, with this event lacking a dominant fit for the course amongst the favorites. I’ll have my eye on a few of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sungjae Im, and Eric Cole. Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds!
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Photo Credit: Francisco Seco/AP
