2026 NFL Draft: Where Will Carson Beck Be Drafted To? Odds, Market Analysis, Predictions

While all of the quarterback discussion is dedicated to Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, there’s a flurry of mid-tier quarterbacks, such as Carson Beck, that could be drafted anywhere from the second round to the end of the draft. 

As for Beck, I’d project him as a third or fourth-round pick. He played a lot of college football, playing 39 games for the Georgia Bulldogs and 16 for the Miami Hurricanes. In his final season of college football, he completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. While his yards per attempt were up from 2024, that was not one of Beck’s finer seasons. Compared to his 2023 season, he averaged 1.3 yards per attempt less. 

So, he’s experienced, works through his progressions, and can escape when needed, but isn’t exactly a scrambler. 

What are his issues? His arm talent has declined since his UCL surgery, and he struggles under pressure. Last season, when pressured, he completed 48.3% of his passes for 369 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. He was only pressured on 17% of his dropbacks, too, so in the NFL, where he’ll be pressured more often, that’s a concern. 

Now, DraftKings Sportsbook has odds for his landing spot. Below, I’ll preview the top five and provide my pick. 

Remember: Trying to peg where a player could be drafted, especially if they may not go until Day 3, can be difficult. 

Miami Dolphins (+300)

The Dolphins have Malik Willis under contract and also have Quinn Ewers. The Dolphins did bring in Beck for a pre-draft visit, but if he landed with the Dolphins, he’d be the QB3 to start the year. 

Willis is the big free agent, and Ewers played fairly well to end the season, going 1-2 as a starter, completing 66.3% of his passes for 622 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. 

I also believe the Dolphins will be in the 2027 quarterback market. 

I’m not sure Beck makes a lot of sense for them, despite the Dolphins being atop the odds at +300. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+330)

The Steelers are in an interesting predicament. It feels like Aaron Rodgers will be back next season, but there’s still no word yet. Who knows? Maybe he’ll announce his comeback at the NFL Draft itself, since it’s in Pittsburgh. 

Behind Rodgers would be Mason Rudolph and Will Howard. With Rodgers set to retire sooner rather than later, bringing in Beck to compete with Rudolph and Howard does make sense, especially with this being a new offense led by Mike McCarthy. 

The Steelers are chronically aoo good to draft a top quarterback, and if Rodgers is back, that’ll be the case in 2027. 

All that being said, if Rodgers is back, the chances of the Steelers carrying four quarterbacks aren’t exactly high, and while Rudolph would save $3 million, I feel like they’d carry Rodgers/Rudolph/Howard. 

I’d lean towards “pass” on the Steelers. 

New York Jets (+425)

The Jets are definitely gearing up for the 2027 crop of quarterback talent. They have Geno Smith, who, at this point in his career, is the definition of “decent.” With him, the Jets will likely win five or six games and have a decently high pick. In addition to their pick, they have two other first-round picks from the Dallas Cowboys and the Indianapolis Colts. 

Right now, they have Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe to back up Smith. Would Beck be an upgrade over either of them? I’d say, yeah, probably, but given that I firmly believe they’re just going to look for their quarterback of the future, they could take a quarterback later on, but I’m not sure they’ll go after someone like Beck. 

Again, leaning toward pass. 

Arizona Cardinals (+450)

The Cardinals don’t have Simpson on their roster yet, but it feels as though they should just put the jerseys on their online store because it makes way too much sense. 

However, in the event they don’t land Simpson, what do they do? Well, they have Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and Kedon Slovis. Brissett wants his contract revised to be paid like a starter. 

They have a new head coach in Mike LaFleur, so it’s setting up for them to draft a quarterback. 

That said, this isn’t exactly the year to find the quarterback to hitch your wagon to, but a later pick wouldn’t be as consequential. 

To me, this feels like a scenario where they could take a mid-round quarterback if they miss out on Simpson, see what they have, and move on in 2027 if needed.

I recommend “pass” here as well. Simpson should be the target, and of the teams so far, this makes the most sense. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+850)

Reports of dismay between the Eagles and quarterback Jalen Hurts are growing, and it seems the drama in Philadelphia never ends. 

With that, could the Eagles be in the market for a quarterback after this season? Yeah, sure, but it’s hard to say. Behind Hurts are Tanner McKee and Andy Dalton, and neither of them would be the heir apparent to Hurts if he were to be off the team in 2027. 

The Eagles have a decent, but aging, offensive line, which could help Beck with his issues against the pass rush, but Beck is also a completely different quarterback than Hurts. 

The odds on Beck landing here are likely high because of the Eagles/Hurts rumors, but I’d pass. 

Carson Beck Will Be Drafted By…

Making a pick for a player who could be the fifth guy off the board at his position is not an easy task. 

To help make this pick, I tried to find teams that had solid offensive lines, had similar quarterbacks in place to Beck, and had warmer environments, since Beck played at Georgia and Miami. 

Not only that, but I also looked at teams that didn’t exactly have a clear-cut, no-doubt starter. 

Some of the teams I arrived at were the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Now, not all of these teams check every single box I mentioned, but I was drawn to the Buccaneers. 

Mayfield is only under contract with the team for one more year. The offensive line isn’t in great shape, but the team is based in Florida, and Beck and Mayfield are similar enough (Mayfield is more athletic) that it would make sense. 

Also, the backups, Jake Browning and Connor Bazelak, aren’t exactly threatening. 

I do worry about them having a down year, Todd Bowles gets fired, and Beck is left hung out to dry, but that’s not something I’m worried about for this prediction. 

Given the +1800 odds, I like the Buccaneers as a landing spot.

Photo Credit: AP/Julio Cortez