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Texas voters will choose a new attorney general on November 3, 2026, and the result could shape how the state treats prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The seat is open because Attorney General Ken Paxton did not seek a fourth term and instead chose to run for the U.S. Senate.
The Candidates
Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton of Galveston defeated U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 26 primary runoff with about 56% of the vote. Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas won his runoff against former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski with about 60% of the vote, according to the runoff coverage by KERA News.
Polling shows a closer race than usual for a Texas statewide contest. A July survey of 1,048 likely voters by Texas Public Opinion Research, a group run by a Democrat, had Middleton at 39% and Johnson at 38%, with 18% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, as reported by FOX 7 Austin. A later August survey compiled by the Texas Politics Project showed Middleton holding a narrow 40% to 35% lead, with 22% of voters still undecided.
Why It Matters for Prediction Markets
Under Paxton, the attorney general’s office stayed on the sidelines of the national regulatory fight. A recent investigative report by Politico highlighted that Texas was one of a handful of states whose attorney general refused to sign multi-state legal challenges to curb the platforms, arriving shortly after Paxton’s campaign accepted thousands of dollars in donations from Kalshi’s CEO.
This divide was heavily emphasized when a massive coalition of 44 state attorneys general sent a joint letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The group argued that the federal agency has no authority over sports event contracts and demanded that prediction markets be regulated under state gambling laws. According to reporting by CNBC, Texas, Florida, and Georgia stood out among the mere six states whose top legal officers explicitly declined to sign the coalition letter.
Pressure is building elsewhere in the state. At the direction of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the Texas Senate State Affairs Committee held a hearing in September on how federally regulated prediction markets fit with the state’s gambling ban, as detailed by iGaming Business. The American Gaming Association urged the state to sue the platforms, while Kalshi defended them.
The next attorney general will decide if Texas mirrors states like California—where official state and tribal gaming regulators tightly restrict digital wagering networks—or if it continues down the permissive path blazed by Florida and Georgia, where state enforcement has largely left the platforms unbothered. As the national legal battle draws closer to the Supreme Court, according to WGN Radio, the winner of the Texas race will decide whether the state launches aggressive local legal action or leaves them alone ahead of the 2027 legislative session. Early voting starts October 19.
For now, prediction markets remain available to Texas users while Texas sports betting remains illegal.
Photo by Avi Werde on Unsplash
