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The Home Run Derby is upon us. It’s everyone’s favorite part of the All-Star festivities. This year, we’ve got a stacked field, including Kyle Schwarber, Junior Caminero, Munetaka Murakami, Jac Caglianone, Jordan Walker, Bryce Harper, Ben Rice, and Willson Contreras.
We’re going to choose two picks to win the Home Run Derby. Since this is an unpredictable event, we want to lean into uncertainty by focusing on longshot odds. As such, my two picks will be priced at +600 or longer. With that in mind, let’s get right into it.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 62-240 (+0.78 units)
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Home Run Derby Predictions & Odds: 2026 MLB Home Run Derby Picks
Before we get into my picks, let’s first establish a set of criteria for what we’re looking for in a Home Run Derby winner:
- Batted ball metrics: Barrel rate, maximum exit velocity
- Bat speed: Faster bat speed means more raw power
- Young slugger: We want a young slugger looking to make more of a name for himself
Considering those factors, I’ve come up with two hitters that check all those boxes.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is currently slashing .260/.322/.463 with 15 home runs in 345 plate appearances. While these home run totals aren’t as eye-popping like Kyle Schwarber or Junior Caminero, Caglianone is a young hitter who is slowly finding his groove at the big league level.
We saw this when Caglianone had a monster June, where he slashed .309/.387/.649 with nine home runs. This is what we expected from him when he came through the Royals’ system as such a highly touted prospect.
You have to like that Caglianone has a 14.9% barrel rate with a 116.1 MPH maximum exit velocity, demonstrating his elite raw power. As a young hitter in his first full season in the big leagues, Caglianone will have an opportunity to make more of a name for himself by putting on a show at the Home Run Derby.
At the time of this article, Caglianone was listed at +650 odds, making him look like a nice value to win the Home Run Derby. Risk 0.1 units.
Jordan Walker Home Run Odds
I came into the 2026 MLB season super high on Jordan Walker. This was a post-hype sleeper who had elite raw tools that made me encouraged that he could put it all together. It also helped that he went to Driveline to hone his skills this offseason.
It’s paid major dividends. Walker has arguably been the biggest breakout of the season, slashing .294/.353/.534 with 22 home runs in 391 plate appearances.
He has a 14.3% barrel rate and a 116.6 MPH maximum exit velocity. This is a hitter who absolutely crushes the ball.
Like Caglianone, you can bet that Walker will be looking to make a statement with a great showing at the Home Run Derby. This is another young hitter who has more to prove here, especially compared to established stars like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
On top of that, Walker is a great value right now, currently listed at +700 odds at the time of this article. With that in mind, we’ll ride with the Cardinals’ slugger here. Risk 0.1 units.
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