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Best Bet: LVA ML (+100) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Aces 79, Valkyries 77
The Pick: Aces 79, Valkyries 77
We’ll stick with Vegas with the data still in the Aces’ corner despite Game 1, while the total is murky to get behind.
Game Betting Analysis
We’re sticking with the Aces based on the data, although it missed Game 1 after Golden State’s clinic on the glass. The Aces are still 6-2 against the Valkyries in head-to-heads, with spread covers in five of the last six meetings as well. The home team has won four straight meetings, which is our setback data point, but Vegas winning six of seven is still the winner there. Also, the total is very murky with Game 1 going Under – the first Under for Vegas in its last nine playoff games. While Vegas goes Over in the postseason more times than not, the Under has now hit in four of five meetings. We’re handcuffed to Vegas, so we’ll take the moneyline at plus-money with a +1.5-point spread on the board.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Aces vs. Valkyries Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Golden State’s Glass Domination vs. Vegas’ Need to Adjust
Golden State’s glass domination is the deciding factor in this series: in Game 1 the Valkyries grabbed a franchise-record 52 rebounds to Vegas’ 25, holding the Aces to just two second-chance opportunities largely by design, with Kiah Stokes playing off A’ja Wilson defensively to crash the boards behind her instead of helping (14 rebounds, 7 offensive, 4 blocks) and Kayla Thornton adding 11 more off the bench. Becky Hammon called it “a discipline issue” on boxing out rather than a talent gap, and Wilson’s own line backed that up — 24 points but just 4 rebounds on 38.1% shooting, a steep drop from the 25 points on 51.9% shooting and 12.7 rebounds she averaged against this same Golden State team across three regular-season wins. The good news for Vegas is that both Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot, who missed or left Game 1 injured, are off the injury report for Game 2 — but unless the Aces fix their box-out assignments and get Wilson back to her head-to-head form against this specific opponent, a healthier rotation alone won’t flip a game decided almost entirely on the glass.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026
- Kickoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Network: Peacock, NBCSN
- Venue: Chase Center – 156.8 ppg; 11-14 O/U
- Series Score: Valkyries 1-0
Key Players
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson — Last Game: 24 points
- Jackie Young — Last Game: 11 points, 5 assists
Golden State Valkyries
- Gabby Williams — Last Game: 25 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists
- Veronica Burton — Last Game: 4 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
