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We had a profitable day on Thursday, as Munetaka Murakami homered in his big-league debut. Let’s build off that with another positive result on Friday, March 27th.
Today, we’ve got eight games on the schedule. As always, we’ll be looking for underpriced hitters. The goal is to go with hitters priced at +500 or longer, since betting on home runs is a volatile market.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Friday, Mar. 27)
Hunter Goodman Home Run Odds
Hunter Goodman is coming off a terrific season for the Rockies, where he slashed .278/.323/.520 with 31 home runs in 579 plate appearances, establishing himself as one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. The batted ball metrics were good as well, including a 12.8% barrel rate and a 116.2 MPH maximum exit velocity.
THE BAT X projects Goodman to go yard 28 times this year, so I like the price that we’re getting here at +600 at the time of this article.
Tonight, Goodman goes up against Marlins’ righty Sandy Alcantara. While I expect Alcantara to pitch much better this year, now another year removed from Tommy John surgery, that’s given us a bit of a discount on a 30+ HR hitter.
We saw Alcantara give up a lot of hard contact last season, as highlighted by an 8.6% barrel rate, which bodes well for this prop.
But even if Alcantara performs well in this game, since it’s the first start of the season, there’s a good chance that we’ll see workload restrictions. That means that Goodman is likely to get a couple of at-bats vs. the Marlins’ bullpen.
Simply put, this is an undervalued power hitter who isn’t more hyped because he plays for the Rockies. I’ll risk 0.1 units at this appealing price on Goodman to hit a home run.
Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Odds
Kazuma Okamoto is a polished hitter who is making his big league debut, having come over from Japan to sign with the Blue Jays this offseason. We saw some impressive numbers from the 30-year-old in his final season in the NPB, including a .327/.416/.598 slash line with 15 homers in only 293 plate appearances.
It’s also encouraging to look at what Okamoto was able to do in spring training, slashing .316/.435/.632 with one homer in 23 plate appearances.
We’ve got a good spot for Okamoto at home against Athletics’ righty Luis Severino, who gives up a lot of contact, as highlighted by his 17.6% strikeout rate last season. It wasn’t a good year for the veteran last year, as he had a 4.54 ERA (4.61 SIERA). This isn’t a matchup to fear for Okamoto.
I got this price at +600 odds at the time of the article, which feels like a good value on an MLB-ready hitter who has the upside to hit .260 with 25+ home runs. What better way to make a statement than to homer in your big-league debut?
We saw fellow NPB hitter Munetaka Murakami do that for us yesterday. Let’s take a shot that Okamoto will do the same. Risking 0.1 units on this one.
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