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We had another profitable day on Saturday, as Drake Baldwin hit for us, helping us overcome losses from Tyler Stephenson and Coby Mayo.
On a full Monday slate, we’re riding with the Royals’ young slugger, the Orioles’ center fielder, and an Athletics’ right fielder. Each of these picks has odds at +500 or longer (at the time of this article). We’re going to put only 0.1 units on each pick, with it paying at least 0.5 units, since home run markets are extremely tough.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-8 (+0.99 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, March 30
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
We missed on Jac Caglianone once this season, but we’re going to give him a shot once again. This is a young hitter with some of the best raw power in the majors. It’s only a matter of time before he figures it out in the big leagues.
He hasn’t homered yet this year, but I love what I saw in spring training, including a batted ball of 120 MPH, which is one of the hardest hit balls in the Statcast era. There’s 40+ home run upside in this bat.
Up next is a favorable spot at home. The Royals moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium, which should make it a much more homer-friendly environment. That’s reflected in the game total, which is listed at 9.5.
It’s also a matchup against right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, who gave up an 11.4% barrel rate last year, which ranked in the 7th percentile. That’s good news for Caglianone, who bats from the left side and is much more effective against righties.
We’re getting a solid price on Caglianone at +518 odds at the time of this article, so we’ll take a chance that he hits his first homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Lawrence Butler Home Run Odds
Lawrence Butler hasn’t gotten it going for the Athletics just yet. The team opted to rest Butler in two of three games in the series against the Blue Jays. The team is slow-playing Butler after dealing with a knee injury throughout the offseason. But after getting swept in Toronto, the A’s could definitely use Butler’s bat.
This is a hitter who homered 22 times in 451 plate appearances in his age-23 season. Last year, he was held back by injury, but still hit 21 homers. Up next is a terrific spot against Braves’ right-hander Bryce Elder.
Elder gave up a 1.38 HR/9 on the season, so Butler has a chance to go yard here. It also helps that this game has one of the higher totals on the slate at nine runs.
I wanted to target an A’s hitter in this one, and Butler is the best bet out of hitters priced at +500 odds or longer. Risk 0.1 units.
Colton Cowser Home Run Odds
Colton Cowser is coming off a disappointing year, but let’s remember that he homered 24 times with a .204 ISO in 561 plate appearances in his age-25 season back in 2024.
This is a left-handed hitter with a career .194 ISO vs. righties (.168 ISO against lefties). Even though last year was underwhelming, the batted ball metrics were still encouraging, as highlighted by a 14.1% barrel rate.
I like targeting Cowser here because he’s priced nearly at +600 odds, but in a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards, set to take on Jack Leiter. The Rangers’ righty gave up a 10.8% barrel rate last season, which ranked in the 13th percentile.
With that in mind, we’ll sprinkle 0.1 units on Cowser to hit his first homer of the year.
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