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We missed on Ben Rice and Andy Pages on Wednesday (Drake Baldwin was still playing at the time I wrote today’s article), extending our winless stretch on home run props.
Today, we’re going with James Wood, Riley Greene, and William Contreras. Since we’ve been ice-cold of late, we’re going to include hitters priced at shorter than +500 odds for the second night in a row.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-28 (-1.01 units) *pending Drake Baldwin
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, April 8
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood came into Tuesday’s action with a .163/.280/.442 slash with three home runs in 50 plate appearances. The 23-year-old outfielder went on to homer against the Cardinals, which was his third straight game with a dinger.
This is a hitter with loud tools, as highlighted by his 19.2% barrel rate. That’s why you want to hop on board when he’s in a hot streak, as he is now.
Up next is a terrific matchup against Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy, who is giving up a lot of hard contact so far this year, including a 20.0% barrel rate.
With Wood completely locked in at the plate, we’ll ride with him to homer for the fourth game in a row. Risk 0.1 units.
Riley Greene Home Run Odds
Riley Greene came into Tuesday’s action slashing .211/.302/.289 with zero home runs in 43 plate appearances. While he ended up going 0-for-4 against the Twins, plus his barrel rate is underwhelming at 9.7%, I really like the matchup for him on Wednesday.
That’s because Greene will be going up against Bailey Ober, who allowed a 1.85 HR/9 last season and is currently at 1.13 HR/9 this year. Ober has an issue with home runs, so it’s a great opportunity for Greene to go yard for the first time this year.
We’ve seen Greene have success against Ober throughout his career, including two home runs and a .719 expected slugging percentage in 20 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll take a chance on Greene to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
William Contreras Home Run Odds
William Contreras came into Tuesday night with a .265/.405/.471 slash with one home run in 42 plate appearances. Remember, this is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, capable of 20+ home runs, so he’s always worth a look to go yard in a hitter-friendly environment like Fenway Park.
Up next is a matchup against Sonny Gray, whom Contreras knows quite well from his time with the Cardinals. Contreras has 16 career plate appearances with zero home runs vs. Gray, but the familiarity is the key here.
Gray is more vulnerable against righties (.348 wOBA this season) than lefties (.194 wOBA), which bodes well for Contreras here. I like that we’re getting longshot odds on Contreras here, since this prop is listed at +700 at the time of this article.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll ride with the Brewers catcher to finish off our home run props today. Risk 0.1 units.
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