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The Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams connection finally took off last season, resulting in a division title and an appearance in the divisional round of the playoffs. A stunning turnaround after years of mediocracy, yet their final grade on offense backed up their success, fielding a unit who ranked ninth overall in Off DVOA.
While their offense thrived, the Bears struggled to find their footing on defense, residing near the bottom of the board in Def DVOA and in Success Rate. Their lack of production on defense forced them to play in highly volatile shootouts, resulting in plenty of tight scoring affairs that could tip either way. Fortunately for the Bears, lady luck was on their side, finishing 7-4 in one score games.
With DJ Moore gone and question marks looming over their defense, expect negative regression to rear its ugly head over the Bears, bringing them hard back down to reality. Especially if Williams is unable to cut down on his percentage of bad throws, stalling out their offense which will make it difficult for the Bears to match their opponents output on a weekly basis.
2026 Chicago Bears Super Bowl Odds
Not only do the Bears need to address multiple key positions, but their schedule also does them no favors in their efforts of building on last year’s success, drawing the seventh hardest strength of schedule in the league. With zero room for error, the Bears are vulnerable to missing out on the playoffs while jockeying with the NFC West for one of the three wildcard spots, making them a pass at their current odds to win the Super Bowl.
Bet: No
2026 Chicago Bears NFC Championship Odds
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Bears will struggle to reach the playoffs while locked into tightly contested contests for the full course of the season, making them a pass to win the NFC Championship. Especially if Williams is forced to continue to make magic happen in high Havoc situations, ranking well below league average in CPOE and in Percentage of Bad Throws.
Bet: No
2026 Chicago Bears NFC North Odds
After winning the division title last year, the Bears will need to sustain their high level of play while weaving through a much tougher schedule this season, a feat that will be tough to pull off while fielding an underwhelming defense. With the Detroit Lions getting the benefit of navigating a far more favorable slate of games, the Bears will be unable to string together enough wins to match their pace and finish behind them in the division standings.
Bet: No
2026 Chicago Bears Win Total Odds
At 9.5, the Under on the Bears win total is worth a wager with projections listing them a tad under nine wins. While the difference does not seem large at first glance, I am also accounting for regression to swing against them after last year’s fluky streak of one score wins, shading even more value towards the Under.
Bet: Under 9.5 (-120)
2026 Chicago Bears To Make The Playoffs Odds
With the Bears expected to stay under their win total, their chances of making the playoffs will also plummet, lacking the wins that are needed to leap over the rest of the wildcard contenders. A group that includes the two losers of the NFC West (Seahawks, Rams, 49ers), as well as their own division rivals (Lions and Packers).
Bet: No
2026 Chicago Bears MVP Award Odds & Contenders
- Caleb Williams
Unless Williams shows he has taken massive strides with his efficiency under center, pass on him to win the MVP, lacking the consistency that is needed to keep pace with the top contenders for the award. Not only did Williams rank near dead last in CPOE and in Bad Throw Percentage, but he also took points off the board with his sporadic play in the backfield, finishing 21st in EPA per play.
Bet: No
2026 Chicago Bears Schedule
- Week 1 – at Carolina, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 2 – vs. Minnesota, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 3 – vs. Philadelphia, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 4 – vs. NY Jets, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 5 – at Green Bay, 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 6 – at Atlanta, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 7 – vs. New England, 8:15 p.m. (TNF) – APVO
- Week 8 – at Seattle, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 9 – vs. Tampa Bay, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 10 – BYE
- Week 11 – vs. New Orleans, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 12 – at Detroit, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 13 – vs. Jacksonville, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 14 – at Miami, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 15 – at Buffalo, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 16 – vs. Green Bay, 1:00 p.m. – Netflix
- Week 17 – vs. Detroit, 4:25 p.m. – FOX
- Week 18 – at Minnesota, TBD
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