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Best Bet: U164.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet
Score Prediction: Florida 86, Florida State 78
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21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Pick: Florida 86, Florida State 78
We’ll take the Under for various different data points for both schools.
Game Betting Analysis
The Under seems to be worth a look after going through some data, although the FSU offense will truly meet its measuring stick opponent against No. 1 ranked Florida. FSU has failed to eclipse 68 points in three of five meetings, also seeing an O/U mark of 5-8 in non-conference games and a 2-5 O/U mark with rest disadvantage. The Seminoles have also seen a stellar 16 straight home games go Under 163 total points when facing an AP ranked school at night. The Gators also own a 3-7 O/U mark in their last 10 true road games and 3-6 O/U when playing as road favorites.
Florida-FSU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Florida’s Three-Headed Frontcourt vs. Florida State’s Perimeter Inconsistency
No. 1 Florida (2-0) takes its five-game winning streak in this rivalry into Tallahassee on Tuesday night, and the clearest advantage the Gators carry in is a frontcourt depth no other team in the country can match. Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh — all three on the preseason Naismith Trophy Player of the Year watch list — have combined to make Florida’s interior close to unguardable through two games. Condon nearly posted a triple-double in the 88-57 win over Jacksonville (12 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists), while Chinyelu added 21 points and 8 rebounds in that same game; Haugh leads the team in scoring at 16.5 points per night. The Gators are outrebounding opponents by a +16 margin at 48.0 boards a game, and they’ve paired that interior force with a perimeter game that’s heating up fast — 11 made three-pointers in each of their last two outings (22-of-51, 43.1%) and a free-throw rate that climbed from 57.1% against Miami to 70.4% against Jacksonville. With 82% of last season’s scoring back in the fold, Florida isn’t just deep up front — it’s a team getting more efficient on the perimeter by the game, which bodes poorly for a Florida State defense that hasn’t faced anything close to this level of frontline talent yet.
The Seminoles, meanwhile, have a glaring question mark at the exact spot Florida figures to attack: perimeter shooting and ball security. FSU shot just 7-of-28 (25%) from three in its 91-68 win over Troy, and point guard Martay Barnes missed two open looks from deep in that game while he, freshman center Marcis Ponder and Brandon Bass Jr. combined for seven turnovers. Florida State has leaned instead on getting to the line — 34-of-39 free throws against Troy, and it ranks second nationally at 30.5 made free throws per game — which works against overmatched non-conference opponents like Troy and Florida A&M (a combined margin of 23 and 43 points) but is a far shakier plan against a Florida defense allowing just 62.0 points a game. Ponder has been the one bright spot inside, recording a double-double in both games (10 points, 10 rebounds vs. Troy) to become the only ACC player with one in each of his first two outings, and Shon Abaev (20 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists vs. Troy) gives second-year coach Luke Loucks a reliable table-setter. But second-year coach Loucks is trying to rebuild a home-court identity that hasn’t existed in Tallahassee for years, and if Florida’s bigs punish FSU’s du lesser frontcourt depth early while the Seminoles keep missing from outside and coughing it up, Florida State’s path to an upset narrows to needing a near-flawless night at the free-throw line to stay within shouting distance.
Game Information
- Date: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
- Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: ESPN2, ESPN+
- Location: Tallahassee, Florida
- Venue: Donald L. Tucker Civic Center – 159 ppg
College Basketball Game Trends & Odds
Key Players
Florida Gators
- Thomas Haugh — Last Game: 14 points, 7 rebounds
- Rueben Chinyelu — Last Game: 21 points, 8 rebounds
FSU Seminoles
- Shon Abaev — Last Game: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists
- Kam Taylor — Last Game: 15 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
