NBA First Basket Picks Today (Nov. 9): Ivica Zubac

We lost to another favorite on Friday (Luka had to steal Walker Kessler’s thunder), but so be it. We’re still up on the season and the process is going to put us in this position over and over. I’m also not one of those guys who’s going to keep lecturing about the process like I’m Aristotle or something. I’m not. You need to be consistent with this prop and look for value down the board.

For today’s pick, we’re rolling with our boy Ivica Zubac at odds. Thank goodness he’s not on the Clippers anymore.

Why Ivica Zubac for NBA First Basket vs. the Mavericks

Picking a first basket scorer starts with the opening tip, and that’s where Zubac has an edge. He’s a 7-footer with a long reach, and he’ll likely be the tallest player in the center circle. Dallas is without Dereck Lively II, which takes away its best shot-blocker and one of its better jumpers. That makes it more likely Indiana gets the first possession. When the Pacers win the tip, their opening set usually goes through the frontcourt.

His job in Indiana’s offense makes the bet even more appealing. Zubac doesn’t need plays called for him to score. He gets his points from pick-and-roll finishes, putbacks and dump-off passes near the basket, and those can come in the first 20 seconds of any possession. He’s averaging 8.6 rebounds per game, so even a missed jumper by Pascal Siakam or Aaron Nesmith could turn into a quick tip-in. These putback opportunities are really where the value lives.

Then there’s the price. At +525, the implied probability is about 16%. Siakam is the obvious favorite to score first for Indiana, but Zubac shoots a high percentage at the rim and is likely to win the tip, so his real chances may be close to that 16% or a bit better. First basket bets are always long shots. If you want a value play instead of the favorite, Zubac at +525 is a reasonable pick.

NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season

For more picks, stats, and info, see our NBA first basket guide.