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Best Bet: FSU +3.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Louisville 31, FSU 28
The Pick: Louisville 31, FSU 28
We’ll take the FSU spread given data trends for both teams entering.
Game Betting Analysis
In five games this season, FSU has yet to see the favorite cover the spread. That would be Louisville in this game, who has also failed to cover the spread in six straight games when playing as a favorite in October. The total is murky, as Louisville is 4-1 on the O/U this season while FSU has gone Under in four of five games. Also, FSU has hit the Under in its last seven conference games. With the defensive issues from Louisville this season as well, there’s too much crossing data points to consider this market – so we’ll go with the underdog covering. FSU to win outright is off the table as the Seminoles have seen the home teams win 10 of 11 games.
FSU-Louisville Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: FSU’s Dual-Threat Ground Game vs. Louisville’s Leaky Defense
Florida State comes into Friday night on a two-game winning streak, the most recent a 38-7 rout of Virginia in which Ashton Daniels set the FSU quarterback record with five rushing touchdowns in a single game. That performance fits the Seminoles’ season-long identity: they’re averaging 194 rushing yards per game behind Ousmane Kromah, and Daniels has shown he isn’t just a runner, throwing for 377 yards in the loss at Alabama. That ground-and-pound floor paired with a live arm when needed is the exact profile built to carve up Louisville’s defense, which ranks just 113th nationally in scoring defense at 29.2 points allowed per game and a brutal 130th against the pass at 266.8 yards allowed per contest — a unit that has given up at least 27 points in every one of Louisville’s three losses this season.
Louisville, meanwhile, is far from a pushover offensively — the Cardinals are averaging 38.6 points and 287.4 passing yards per game, with dual-threat quarterback Lincoln Kienholz already topping 300 passing yards three times this season and playmakers like Tre Richardson capable of explosive plays through the air and on the ground. The problem is that Louisville’s defense has been unable to close games out, surrendering 27-plus points in all three of its losses, each of which came by exactly three points — a team that can score with anybody but can’t get the stop it needs when it matters. Florida State’s own pass defense ranks a similarly shaky 125th nationally, which sets up a track-meet atmosphere, but with both secondaries compromised, the team with the more reliable floor — Florida State’s power run game controlling tempo behind Kromah while Daniels keeps the offense on schedule — has the cleaner path to outlasting the shootout.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium – 67 ppg; 2-1 O/U
- Conference: ACC
Best Bets for College Football Week 6
- FSU +3.5 (-108)
Key Players
FSU
- QB, Ashton Daniels — Last Game: 12/19, 183 yards, INT; 17 carries, 136 yards, 5 TD
- RB, Ousmane Kromah — Last Game: 17 carries, 80 yards
Louisville
- QB, Lincoln Kienholz— Last Game: 21/30, 254 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Tre Richardson — Last Game: 8 catches 117 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
