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Best Bet: BYU -10.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Best Bet: O46.5 (-108)
Score Prediction: BYU 29, Iowa State 18
The Pick: BYU 29, Iowa State 18
We’ll take the BYU spread based on grand data for the Cougars, while the Over lurks based on head-to-head trends and venue stats – along with recent Iowa State results.
Game Betting Analysis
This one is tricky, so let’s begin with BYU covering the spread, albeit a double-digit spread that does scare us – so conviction is low. The road team has covered the last two meetings, our only real set back in the ATS market. This is all about BYU’s data, though, covering the spread in all four games this season while also seeing the favorite cover the spread in a grand 10 straight games. That trend alone is enough to get behind, so despite the head-to-head data point it seems the ATS is fine to test in BYU’s favor, despite it being 10 or more points. The total isn’t much better, Iowa State on a current 0-4 Under run when playing on the road. However, the Over has hit in the last two head-to-heads while the Cyclones have seen at least one team score 31 points or more in three straight games – two of which saw Iowa State post 55 points while just winning a 45-42 shootout with West Virginia. If pressed, the Over seems fine based on their past meetings, Iowa State’s recent results and BYU averaging 57.5 points per home game while we get a total at 46.5.
Iowa State-BYU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: BYU’s Nation-Leading Ground Game vs. Iowa State’s Porous Run Defense
BYU rolls into Friday at 4-0 and ranked No. 8 nationally, built on a ground game that ranks third in the country in EPA per rush, averaging 262.7 rushing yards and 44 points per game through its first three weeks. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been a weapon in his own right, piling up four rushing touchdowns to go with 704 passing yards and six passing scores, and while lead back LJ Martin (176 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado State) is banged up and his status for Friday is uncertain, BYU’s rushing attack has been a scheme-and-quarterback-driven identity all season rather than a one-man operation. Even in last week’s 17-10 win at TCU, when the offense managed just 59 yards in the opening quarter, the Cougars leaned on that same ground-and-pound approach to grind out the win, and that identity is walking into a matchup tailor-made to keep rolling.
Iowa State, meanwhile, ranks just 95th nationally in run defense by EPA per rush, a glaring vulnerability set to collide directly with the exact strength BYU has built its unbeaten record around. The Cyclones’ own offense compounds the problem, ranking 61st nationally in EPA per play and failing to score more than 17 points in either of its two matchups with ranked competition this season — a 16-13 loss to Iowa and a 31-17 loss to Utah — production concerns that look even bleaker against the kind of defense BYU just flashed in Fort Worth, where the Cougars piled up two sacks and four tackles for loss in the first quarter alone and got a 59-yard pick-six from Faletau Satuala. If BYU’s ground game finds the same room against Iowa State’s shaky run defense that it found through its first three weeks, the Cougars have a clear path to staying unbeaten while the Cyclones’ offense once again fails to keep pace with ranked-caliber competition.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
- Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium – 57.5 ppg; 1-1 O/U
- Conference: Big 12
Best Bets for College Football Week 6
- BYU -10.5 (-108)
- O46.5 (-108)
Key Players
Iowa State
- QB, Jaylen Raynor — Last Game: 19/27, 264 yards, TD, INT
- RB, Aiden Fiora — Last Game: 22 carries, 212 yards, 3 TD; 2/2, 48 yards, 2 TD
BYU
- QB, Bear Bachmeier— Last Game: 11/24, 62 yards; 15 carries, 66 yards, 2 TD
- LB, Jake Clifton — Last Game: 6 tackles, sack
Photo Credit: REUTERS
