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After another profitable night in my last home run column, I’ll try to come back with some more winners on Monday, Aug. 25. Tonight’s MLB slate is loaded with strong pitchers on the mound, including Jacob deGrom, Tarik Skubal, and Hunter Greene, so we’ll have to find other spots for my home run predictions.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Monday, Aug. 25)
Mark Vientos Odds For MLB HR Picks:
My first target is the Mets’ red-hot power hitter, Mark Vientos. Although he’s disappointed with a .238/.284/.412 slash line, he’s starting to show signs of his 2024 form, tallying five home runs over his last seven games.
Unsurprisingly, the right-handed Vientos has performed better against southpaws, putting up a .189 ISO — 22 points higher than the opposite split.
While Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez presents a difficult test, it means Vientos also has better home run odds than usual. I’ll ride with the 25-year-old third baseman, who has delivered two doubles and a long ball in 10 career at-bats against Sanchez.
- Related: Dodgers-Reds Moneyline Prediction & Same-Game Parlay
Jurickson Profar Odds For MLB HR Picks:
Next up is the 32-year-old Braves’ outfielder, Jurickson Profar, who has homered 10 times in 232 plate appearances since returning from his suspension. This stretch includes a career-high 8.2% barrel rate, so the batted ball metrics support this power surge.
Profar has homered four times in his last seven games, including two against the White Sox on Aug. 18. The veteran carries a .298/.433/.607 slash line this month.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Marlins righty Edward Cabrera, whom Profar has had success against throughout his career, going 3-for-8 with two doubles, a dinger, and an impressive .643 xwOBA.
Vinnie Pasquantino Odds For MLB HR Picks:
I can’t exclude the hottest hitter in baseball to finish off Monday’s home run predictions. Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is slashing .253/.305/.655 with 10 home runs in 95 plate appearances this month.
The left-handed slugger is completely locked in at the plate, homering six times in his last seven games and nine times across his last 14 contests.
He’s set up well against White Sox rookie right-hander Shane Smith, who has surrendered 1.66 HR/9 in this split (0.51 HR/9 against righties).
MLB Parlay For My Home Run Predictions
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, a three-leg homer parlay with Vientos, Profar, and Pasquantino combines for +17675 odds. By converting that to implied probability, there’s a 0.56% chance this longshot wager cashes in.
Given the extreme volatility with dingers, I recommend only wagering couch change on this longshot parlay. Always bet responsibly, and good luck with your home run predictions!
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MLB Betting Odds: Moneylines, Spreads, Totals For Monday, Aug. 25
