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Best Bet: TULA +7 (-115) at Fanatics
Best Bet: O55.5 (-112)
Score Prediction: Memphis 31, Tulane 28
The Pick: Memphis 31, Tulane 28
We’ll try the Green Wave spread based on head-to-head trends along with Tulane home data as an underdog, while the Over also has juice to consider.
Game Betting Analysis
Both the Over and Tulane covering are littered in the data, which worries us a bit but let’s go through it. The Over has hit in four of five meetings between both schools, while Tulane has also hit the Over in eight of nine games when facing a non-AP ranked school as an underdog. Memphis also enters this game going Over in four of six games this season. The Tulane ATS market is also supported as the Green Wave have covered the spread in four of five games against Memphis, while Tulane has also seen the underdog cover the spread in six straight home games. Tulane has also won three of four meetings outright against Memphis while winning 21 of 22 home games against non-AP ranked schools.
Memphis-Tulane Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Memphis’s Ground Game vs. Tulane’s Leaky Run Defense
Memphis arrives at Yulman Stadium at 5-1 and fresh off a 230-yard, 46-carry rushing performance in a 38-13 win over UAB, backing up a season in which the Tigers rank 7th nationally in rushing yards per game (247.0) and 12th in yards per carry (5.9). That ground attack lines up about as well as it could against a Tulane defense that ranks 134th in rushing yards allowed (218.6 per game) and 120th in yards per carry allowed (5.0) — a unit that just gave up 329 rushing yards to Army’s option attack in a 20-17 loss last week. With Marcus Stokes also averaging 269.7 passing yards to keep defenses honest, Memphis has the full offensive profile to control the clock on the road and extend its win streak.
Tulane, meanwhile, counters with its own explosive-play ability and a defense on the other side of the ball that isn’t the only unit with cracks to exploit — Memphis’s own run defense ranks 118th nationally in yards allowed per carry, in just the 16th percentile in stuff rate. Running back Jaylin Lucas showed what that kind of exposure can mean when healthy, ripping off 214 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries against South Alabama, and this series has leaned toward track-meet football regardless of records, with the Over cashing in four of the last five meetings and last year’s matchup finishing as a 38-32 shootout. If Lucas and Tulane’s ground game can expose Memphis’s run defense the way Army’s did Tulane’s own unit a week ago, the Green Wave have enough to keep this one well within the number at home.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Venue: Yulman Stadium – 48.5 ppg; 1-1 O/U
- Conference: American
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Tulane +7 (-115)
- Over 55.5 (-112)
Key Players
Memphis
- QB, Marcus Stokes — Last Game: 11/21, 164 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Jaylin Carter — Last Game: 19 carries, 132 yards, 2 TD
Tulane
- QB, Kadin Semonza — Last Game: 14/26, 158 yards, TD, INT; rushing TD
- RB, Johnnie Daniels — Last Game: 8 carries, 67 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
