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Best Bets: Freddie Freeman , Jose Ramirez & Junior Caminero
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, October 12th
Freddie Freeman (Dodgers vs. Brewers) Home Run Odds
Freddie Freeman is heating up at the right time for a home run pick: he’s 3-for-7 (.429) through the first two games of the NLDS with a homer in Game 2 that snapped a drought dating back to September 2, and both Dave Roberts and Freeman himself say the knee tendinitis that had sapped his power is finally settling down. The matchup helps too — Logan Henderson is a fly-ball pitcher with just a 30.7% groundball rate and a 1.28 HR/9 as a rookie, and American Family Field ranks as the 11th-most homer-friendly park in baseball (105 HR factor, about 14% above average over the last three years). A healthy lefty slugger against an inexperienced, fly-ball-prone arm in a hitter’s park is about as clean a setup as this slate offers.
Jose Ramirez (Guardians vs. Rays) Home Run Odds
Jose Ramirez is the hottest hitter in the sport right now, even though Drew Rasmussen is the toughest pitcher matchup on the board — he’s 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and just took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start. Ramirez is a switch-hitter who’ll bat lefty against the right-handed Rasmussen for the platoon edge, and he’s riding a scorching finish to the ALDS: 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and seven RBIs over the final three games, capped by a two-run homer in Saturday’s series-clinching Game 5. Betting against this version of Ramirez, even against a great arm, feels wrong right now.
Junior Caminero (Rays vs. Guardians) Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero lines up against a pitcher who’s been a different animal since changing teams: Foster Griffin was an All-Star with Washington before the trade deadline but has posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 43⅓ innings since joining Cleveland, and he’s been especially hittable against right-handed batters all season (.733 OPS and 16 of his 23 homers allowed, compared to .645 OPS and 7 homers against lefties). Caminero is a right-handed slugger who hit his 39th home run by early September on a 45-50 homer pace, in his home park, against a pitcher seeing this Rays lineup for the first time. Tropicana Field itself is only a neutral-to-slightly-below-average HR park (98 factor), but Caminero’s raw power is more than enough to overcome that.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
