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Best Bets: Jackson Chourio , William Contreras & Andy Pages
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, October 3rd
The Division Series field is finally set, and Saturday delivers a jam-packed slate with all four matchups kicking off Game 1. White Sox-Guardians and Yankees-Rays headline the AL side, while Braves-Dodgers and Padres-Brewers get the NL bracket rolling, with two Cy Young contenders (Jacob Misiorowski and Parker Messick) on the mound and a shorthanded Atlanta rotation already facing questions before first pitch.
Jackson Chourio (Brewers vs. Padres) Home Run Odds
Chourio owns a 12.3% barrel rate and 47.0% hard-hit rate this season, both well above league average, and he’s turned into a true lefty-masher, batting .333 with 9 home runs and a .979 OPS against southpaws in 171 plate appearances. He’s about to see one in Robbie Ray, who was a deadline add and posted just a 5.02 ERA over 43 innings down the stretch with a brutal 7.43 career postseason ERA. Add in American Family Field’s 1.06 home run park factor, the most hitter-friendly of the three venues in action Saturday, and this is the clearest shot on the board
William Contreras (Brewers vs. Padres) Home Run Odds
Same shaky Ray matchup, different Brewer. Contreras has 18 home runs and an 8.5% barrel rate on the year, and he’s actually been better against lefties in 2026 (.405 SLG, .760 OPS) than his season averages. Ray’s previous look at Milwaukee this year wasn’t much better, he allowed 2 runs in 4 innings back in August, and with the Brewers stacking a lineup full of threats behind Chourio, Contreras is squarely in line to cash in if Ray’s command issues continue.
Andy Pages (Dodgers vs. Braves) Home Run Odds
Atlanta’s rotation is in rough shape heading into this series, with Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle unavailable and Martín Pérez not eligible until Game 3, leaving Grant Holmes, J.R. Ritchie, or even a lefty reliever opener as the Game 1 options. That’s a significant break for Pages, who’s hit .293 with a .902 OPS against left-handed pitching this season compared to .774 against righties. He’s up to 23 home runs with a 42.3% hard-hit rate, a career-best mark, and Dodger Stadium’s 1.04 park factor doesn’t hurt either.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
