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Best Bets: Jose Ramirez , Munetaka Murakami , Jo Adell , & Colson Montgomery
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, October 10th
Game 5 of the White Sox-Guardians ALDS is here, and a trip to the ALCS is on the line in Cleveland. With Sean Burke and Gavin Williams both taking the mound on short rest, a long ball or two could end up deciding who’s still playing baseball next week. Here’s a look at the best home run bets on the board today, led by Munetaka Murakami’s series-long power surge, Jose Ramírez’s knack for delivering when the stakes are highest, and two more bats in Jo Adell and Colson Montgomery capable of changing the game with one swing.
Jose Ramirez Home Run Odds
José Ramírez’s case leans as much on moment as on raw numbers. His season home run rate (12 in 124 games, roughly 8.7%) is modest next to Murakami’s, but Ramírez has built his reputation on delivering when games matter most, and Game 5 of a winner-take-all ALDS is about as high-leverage as the regular season and October combine to produce. He’s also a switch-hitter, so Sean Burke doesn’t get to pick his preferred side of the plate — Ramírez sees the same quality of pitch recognition and bat path no matter which box he’s standing in. This was the pick that already cashed earlier in the series, and nothing about his underlying approach has changed heading into the finale.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami is the headliner here, and it isn’t close. He’s carried the shortest home run price of anyone in this series essentially from Game 1 on, bouncing between +390 and +450 depending on the book, and the regular-season numbers back it up — 35 home runs in 127 games works out to a homer in better than one of every four appearances. What makes him the top play specifically for Game 5 is that the hot streak hasn’t cooled with the stakes raised: his hard-hit rate over his last four postseason games sits at 55.6%, and he’s already gone deep once in this series. He’s a left-handed bat, which gives him a clean look at the righty Gavin Williams rather than having to deal with any same-side funk, and nothing in his recent sample suggests regression is coming.
Jo Adell Home Run Odds
Jo Adell is the next tier down, but still a legitimate threat. His season totals are strong on their own (23 home runs in 159 games), and he was arguably the hottest bat in the entire series over the final week of the regular season, running a 59.5% hard-hit rate in that stretch. The one wrinkle is that his most dominant platoon split is against left-handed pitching — a .599 slugging mark in 172 at-bats — and he’s instead drawing the right-handed Burke in Game 5, which tempers the pick slightly. Even accounting for that, his overall power profile and recent contact quality are good enough to keep him in the mix as a real, if slightly less certain, play.
Colson Montgomery Home Run Odds
Colson Montgomery rounds out the group as the value piece from the White Sox side. He’s quietly put together a 31-homer season in 153 games, a rate just a shade under 20%, and he’s consistently carried the second-shortest home run odds on the Chicago roster all series, trailing only Murakami. He doesn’t get talked about as much as the two Guardians bats above him, but the underlying numbers say he’s earned a spot in this group, and facing a Williams fastball that’s been more swing-and-miss than punishing against contact gives him a fair path to add on if Chicago’s lineup gets rolling early.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
