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Best Bet: O58.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Oregon 35, UCLA 30
The Pick: Oregon 35, UCLA 30
We’ll take the Over with a number of overwhelming data points from head-to-head trends to season stats for both schools.
Game Betting Analysis
It’s hard not to take the Over here, with Oregon seeing a remarkable 72.5 points per game inside Autzen Stadium this season. The Over has also hit in four of five meetings, while UCLA has hit the Over in nine of 10 games when facing a Top 15 AP ranked school as an underdog in October. UCLA is 3-1 to the Over this season while Oregon is a perfect 4-0. While UCLA is 4-0 on the ATS this season as well, Oregon has covered eight of nine games when facing an AP ranked school as a favorite in October. We’ll follow the flashing neon signs the data points too, which is the Over.
UCLA-Oregon Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: UCLA’s Elite Rushing Attack vs. Oregon’s Vulnerable Run Defense
UCLA walks into Autzen Stadium unbeaten at 4-0, and the identity of this team has been unmistakable: a ground game that ranks first nationally in rush EPA and second in rush success rate, averaging a gaudy 7.0 yards per carry as a team through four games. Running back Wayne Knight has been the centerpiece, carrying 49 times for 445 yards (9.1 yards per attempt) and nine touchdowns, part of a rushing attack that has already produced 18 team touchdowns on the ground this season, and three of UCLA’s four wins have come by 45-plus points. That profile sets up about as favorably as possible against an Oregon defense that ranks a troubling 101st nationally in opponent rush EPA and 81st in opponent rush success rate, numbers that stand out given Oregon’s overall respectability (17th in net adjusted EPA per play, just three spots behind UCLA’s own 14th-ranked mark). With UCLA already 4-0 against the spread this season and built around exactly the identity Oregon’s defense has struggled hardest to contain, the Bruins have every reason to lean on Knight and control this game on the ground from the opening series.
Oregon, meanwhile, enters with its own significant variable hanging over the game: quarterback Dante Moore, who left the USC win in an ambulance after a targeting hit in the second quarter, was back at practice in helmet and shoulder pads on Monday but hadn’t been cleared through concussion protocol as of the latest update from coach Dan Lanning, leaving his Saturday availability genuinely uncertain. The silver lining for the Ducks is that the offense barely missed a beat without him — Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola came off the bench against USC and went 19-of-25 for 289 yards and two touchdowns, leading four second-half scoring drives as Oregon piled up 504 total yards and scored on seven of its nine possessions in a 41-27 win. Oregon is a perfect 4-0 to the over this season, and whether it’s Moore or Raiola under center, this offense has shown it can keep pace in a shootout, with the over already sitting at 58.5 for Saturday. If Oregon’s defense can tighten up just enough on early downs to keep UCLA’s ground game from fully taking over, and its own offense produces the way it did a week ago regardless of who’s at quarterback, the Ducks have a real path to protecting Autzen Stadium and handing the Bruins their first loss.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS
- Venue: Autzen Stadium – 72.5 ppg; 2-0 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Best Bets for College Football Week 6
- Over 58.5 (-105)
Key Players
UCLA
- QB, Nico Iamaleava — Last Game: 15/24, 209 yards, TD
- RB, Wayne Knight — Last Game: 10 carries, 100 yards, TD; 3 catches, 35 yards
Oregon
- QB, Dylan Raiola— Last Game: 19/25, 289 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Evan Stewart — Last Game: 7 catches, 56 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
